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Orke, Y.A. Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts. Encyclopedia. Available online: https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/20190 (accessed on 23 July 2024).
Orke YA. Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts. Encyclopedia. Available at: https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/20190. Accessed July 23, 2024.
Orke, Yoseph Arba. "Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts" Encyclopedia, https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/20190 (accessed July 23, 2024).
Orke, Y.A. (2022, March 04). Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts. In Encyclopedia. https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/20190
Orke, Yoseph Arba. "Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts." Encyclopedia. Web. 04 March, 2022.
Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts
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This entry is adapted from the peer-reviewed paper 10.3390/w14050729

Climate change is associated with shifts in average climatic conditions and extreme events likely to impact human and ecological systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC), the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events and daily temperature extremes are expected to increase in the mid-21st century. Based on past studies, the increase in long-term temperature and variability in precipitation in different parts of the world and their impacts on the environment are becoming evident.

climate change drought indices Ethiopia hydrological impacts RCPs SWAT model

1. Introduction

There are inter-regional variations in the magnitude of the impacts of climate change and the relationship between the effects at different levels of temperature increase. Some impact indicators, such as temperature extremes, heatwaves, hydrological changes, floods, and droughts, increase with the global average temperature and show very high regional variabilities. For example, the emergence of hot and humid days is concentrated in South Asia and parts of Africa, and the damaging effects of hot spells to spring wheat remain very rare in Europe and North America, even with 4 °C of warming [1]. These effects of climate change show a disturbance in the global and regional hydrologic cycle. Water resources, which were always limited and unevenly distributed, become regionally/locally scarce under the pressure of water consumption dependent on population growth and climate change. Thus, this intensifies scarcity, shocks, and access inequalities [2].
The frequency and severity of extreme hydrological hazards, floods, and droughts are closely linked to climate change [3][4]. Droughts can result in crop failures, leading to loss of life and livelihood, especially in developing economies [5]. These extreme events have profoundly influenced the African economy [6][7]. Water is an economic good with the attribute of being a necessity [2], so drought-induced scarcity has an augmented impact. Ethiopia is one of these drought-prone countries whose economy is primarily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Its low adaptive capacity makes it highly vulnerable to climate change and drought [8]. For example, the droughts of 1984 and 2015 had severe impacts on Ethiopia’s agricultural production [9][10].
Climate change impact assessments are based on future climate change scenarios to obtain projected temperature, precipitation, rise in sea level, and other changes [11]. For example, future temperature predictions in the IPCC mid-range scenario show that the average annual temperature in Ethiopia will increase by 2.7–3.4 °C by 2080 compared to the baseline of 1961–1990 [12]. The IPCC regional review on climate change identified three vulnerable sectors in Ethiopia: food security, water resources, and health [13]. Natural hazards have claimed millions of lives and destroyed crops [14] as Ethiopia was highly affected by increased soil erosion [15], reduction in available water [16], and severe droughts [17][18].
Climate change impact studies were conducted in Ethiopia using the outputs of different global climate models (GCMs) as the input data for hydrologic models to evaluate the influence of climate change on hydrology. Previous studies have found conflicting results regarding the likely effects of climate change on river basin hydrology. For instance, some river basins have experienced excess flow, while others have low flow [16][19][20][21]. The trends and magnitude of rainfall projections from different GCM scenarios for East Africa are uncertain, leading to inconsistent streamflow projections. For example, some studies predict an increase in streamflow in the Nile Basin by the end of the 21st century [20][22][23], while others [24][25][26] predict a decline.
Although several studies have assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrology of different Ethiopian regions, only a few have discussed the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, let alone the Bilate watershed. Streamflow is projected to increase in the Hare watershed and Lake Ziway sub-basin in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin in the future [27][28], but decrease in the Kulfo, Shala, Abiyata, and Langano catchments [29][30]. The estimated total population dependent on agriculture in the Bilate watershed is around 2.4 million. The watershed is also known for the highest rural population density in Ethiopia, with about 500 persons/km2 [30][31]. Since the economy in the Bilate watershed is mainly dependent on agriculture with a low adaptive capacity, the area is particularly vulnerable [32], and the sustainability of water resources in the Bilate watershed is worsening due to climate change [33]. Water demand continues to grow because of increased agricultural activities, population growth, and urban water use [29]. Past studies of the impact of climate change on the Bilate watershed’s hydrology were conducted using a single GCM and the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) emission scenarios [30][32]. However, it is necessary to consider multiple GCM projections with different scenarios to alleviate the uncertainties in climate simulations. Thus, in this research, the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa dataset is utilized with multiple models and high spatial resolution scenarios. The CORDEX-Africa prioritizes RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios [34]. An increase in greenhouse gas emissions characterizes RCP8.5, and no climate mitigation target is assumed through the period [35]. In contrast, RCP4.5 is characterized by the stabilization of radiative forcing after 2100 without exceeding the long-run radiative target [36].
Drought is a major problem in any country or climatic zone in which it occurs [37]. The effect of drought on the water cycle and agricultural activities can be significant, especially in regions dependent on rainfall-fed agriculture [38]. Preparation and planning to cope with adverse drought events are subject to its characteristics, such as intensity, magnitude, and duration. These characteristics can be obtained through monitoring and forecasting, usually using drought indices to provide quantitative information to decision-makers [39]. Many weather-related drought indices have been utilized in various climatic conditions for different purposes. Since drought indices have advantages and disadvantages, multiple indices can better characterize drought events instead of applying a single index for drought monitoring [40][41]. Therefore, in the research, drought assessments have been carried out using three drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI).
SPI is calculated from a long-time precipitation series for any location [42]. Due to its low data requirements, it has become popular [43][44]. SDI was developed by [45] using the SPI as a base for its calculation to characterize hydrological drought. The RDI has significant advantages over other indices because it includes another meteorological parameter, potential evaporation (PET), apart from rainfall. Moreover, it provides reliable outcomes for agricultural droughts [46]. Thus, the inclusion of PET in the calculation of the RDI enhances its validity in studies aiming at risk assessment in agriculture caused by drought occurrence.
Here, the characteristics of future droughts are analyzed using multiple GCM emission scenarios and hydrological modeling. Climate projections are adopted to provide temperature and rainfall data as inputs of hydrological simulations to obtain streamflow data. Meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characteristics are evaluated using the SPI, SDI, and RDI drought indices. The impact of climate change on drought in different Ethiopian river basins has been assessed in previous studies, for instance, [17] in the Blue Nile Basin and [18] in the Awash Basin of Ethiopia. However, few studies have been conducted in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, despite the fact that this basin has 15 million stakeholders [47]. To ensure better planning of adaption measures for the future, it is essential to evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrology and droughts in this area. The research’s main objective is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrology and drought characteristics of the Bilate watershed in two periods, the near (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100), in comparison to the baseline period (1986–2005).

2. Current Insights

2.1. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydroclimatology

The Bilate watershed is situated in the arid and semi-arid Ethiopian Rift Valley region, where agriculture and natural resources are especially susceptible to the effects of climate change [48]. The baseline temperature and rainfall estimate from all models are in good agreement with observations in the study area.
A.Temperature
The researchers' analysis for all scenarios projected increases in the maximum and minimum temperatures, ranging from 0.2 °C to 5.8 °C, with the most significant projected change of temperature in the area being in March and February. Previous studies [30][32] have argued for an increasing trend of future temperature in the Bilate watershed. Comparable findings have been reported for nearby areas, such as in the Awash Basin [16], Ziway catchment of Central Rift Valley Basin [49], Omo Ghibe Basin [50], and Jema sub-basin [51] of the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The findings align with the trend of global projections for a mean temperature increase by the end of the 21st century [3][52]. A considerable temperature rise might initiate higher evapotranspiration, amplifying the scarcity of available water and aggravating droughts in the primary farming months in the study area. In addition, the results indicated that the increase in the minimum temperature would be higher than the increase in the maximum temperature. Studies of the Melka Kuntrie sub-basin [53] of the Awash Basin and Jema sub-basin [54] of the Upper Blue Nile Basin reveal similar findings. The findings also indicate significant DTR narrowing in the study area, which might benefit crop growth by reducing chill damage in the watershed [55][56] but suggesting elevated heat stress during future heat waves [57]. In addition, diurnal temperature reduction might increase night respiration, allowing carbohydrate utilization for maintenance rather than growth [58]. The increase in DTR in the study area in November and December is responsible for an increase in nighttime respiration that might decrease crop yield [59].
B.Rainfall
The modeling results suggest that the annual average rainfall will decrease in the near and far future, with a more pronounced decrease in the far future. The projected seasonal rainfall patterns obtained with all selected GCMs show notable seasonality, with rainfall likely to increase in the dry season (Bega) and decrease in the wet seasons (Kiremt and Belg) under all scenarios. The decrease will be more significant during the Belg season than the Kiremt, with the uncertainty being high in the Belg season. A previous study [30] considering only the HadGEM2-ES model for 2016 to 2035 also reported similar seasonality of rainfall in the watershed. A likely decrease in the wet seasons and an increase in the dry season were also reported for Upper Blue Nile Basin [21]. The rainfall in the Jema watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin was determined using an ensemble mean of six models, suggesting a decrease in rainfall in all seasons except autumn [51].
In contrast to the researchers' findings, larger African river basins reported a less significant increase or decrease in the dry and rainy seasons [60]. For example, the annual rainfall in the Ziway watershed projected by a single model would increase by 9.4% [61]. A study of the Ketar watershed [28] reported an estimated increase in rainfall of 6.4% under RCP4.5 and a decrease of 3.5% under RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. This inconsistency of changes in rainfall patterns in Ethiopian river basins might be due to the uncertainty of the projections and the period considered in the analysis. The researchers findings suggest that there will be a larger rainfall reduction in the future in the Bilate watershed than in other watersheds in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin. The reduction of rainfall accompanied by significant warming during the main crop growing seasons may adversely impact agricultural activities where crop production mainly depends on rain-fed water resources. For example, lack of rainfall during the Belg and Kiremt seasons might delay the planting of crops and decrease productivity. Therefore, instead of only depending on rain-fed agriculture, inhabitants in the Bilate watershed should look for modern irrigation technologies to enhance agricultural production in the area.
C.Evapotranspiration
Analysis of evapotranspiration with the SWAT model showed an increasing tendency of seasonal and annual average evapotranspiration in both near future and far future periods under both RCPs. The increase in the Bilate watershed is associated with a significant temperature rise, resulting in surface water storage depletion. Studies in neighboring basins, such as the Omo-Ghibe Basin [62], Melka Kuntrie, and Keleta sub-basins of the Awash Basin [63][64], also showed consistent growth in evapotranspiration. The IPSL-CM5A-MR under RCP8.5 projected the most significant increase in evapotranspiration among the five models adopted in this research. This increase is associated with the projected significant increase of maximum and minimum temperatures obtained with IPSL-CM5A-MR. The lowest increase was obtained with MIROC5, perhaps related to a smaller change in minimum temperature with this model. This projected increase in evapotranspiration and decrease in rainfall would strengthen the severity of water stress.
D.Streamflow
The simulated streamflow results exhibited a decreasing tendency of the annual average flow for all time horizons under both RCPs. The largest projected decrease in annual streamflow in the watershed at the end of the century would be 37.5%. A study in the adjacent Chamo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin noted a comparable decrease of the mean annual streamflow of 42.8% at the end of the century compared to the baseline period [65]. The reduction of annual streamflow in the Bilate watershed is associated with a decrease in streamflow in the Belg and Kiremt seasons. The projected seasonal streamflow likely follows the rainfall pattern; it is expected to increase in the Bega and decrease in the Belg and Kiremt. The similarity suggests that future increases and decreases in streamflow will be associated with projected increases and reductions in rainfall. These findings showed that by the end of the century, the most significant increase in streamflow would be in the Bega (44.4%), and the largest reduction could be in the Belg (69%). A previous study using the HadGEM2-ES model has also projected a similar pattern from 2016 to 2035, except for a reported decrease in the projected streamflow in the 2021–2025 Bega season [30]. These results are consistent with those from a study made in the Ziway watershed in the RVLB using the HadCM3 model, which indicated an increase of streamflow in the Bega and a reduction in the Belg and Kiremt seasons [66]. With the projected increase in evapotranspiration and decrease in streamflow in the crop growing seasons, water stress in the Belg and Kiremt would increase, affecting water security for agricultural production and other investment sectors. In addition, increasing streamflow in the Bega might increase the danger of flash floods and soil erosion. Therefore, watershed management adaptation strategies should be developed to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production, food security, rural development, and natural resource conservation.

2.2. Impact of Climate Change on Drought Characteristics

The researchers analyzed the probability of drought occurrence and average drought intensity (SPI, RDI, SDI) in the Bilate watershed by an ensemble mean of five GCMs for near future and far future periods under two scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Figure 1 and Figure 2). The probability of drought occurrence from January to December is computed by taking the ratio of the number of years having the drought index value ≤1 to the total number of years in the period [67]. For meteorological drought (SPI), the projections indicated an increase in the probability of drought from the baseline to the future. For example, the likelihood of meteorological drought during the Kiremt (June to September) ranged from 0.10 in the baseline result to 0.16 for the far future period. It reached its maximum (0.19) for the Belg (February to May) in the far future period under RCP8.5 (Figure 1a). This higher chance of occurrence is mainly caused by a significant decrease in projected rainfall. Higher variability of rainfall in the Belg [68] might be another reason. The RDI results showed a similar temporal pattern of drought occurrence to the SPI results (Figure 1c). In addition to reduced rainfall, the high probability of agricultural drought in the Belg may be related to the projected increase in evapotranspiration due to increased temperature. A study of factors influencing a community’s vulnerability to drought shows that the areas most vulnerable to agricultural drought were rainfed farmland and sandy pastures, located in areas with a very high probability of moisture deficiency. This indicates that drought vulnerability is also linked closely to types of land-uses conditions, which might contribute to available water scarcity [69][70][71]. Although the current research took the simplification without considering future LULC changes, it is noted that climate change is likely to have significant impacts on LULC conditions, which is also highly related to socioeconomic developments. Such changes in LULC will further induce feedback on water resources and require proper adaptation measures to support the sustainability of socio-economy developments.
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Figure 1. Probability of drought: (a) SPI; (b) SDI; and (c) RDI for the baseline and future periods.
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Figure 2. Average drought intensities: (a) SPI; (b) SDI; and (c) RDI for the baseline and future periods.
Although the probabilities of hydrological drought showed relatively lower values, from 0.07 for the baseline to 0.14 for the far future period, than those of meteorological and agricultural drought, changes in increased probabilities are comparable among the three types of droughts, showing doubled increases. The results also suggested a similar seasonal pattern for the three kinds of drought with a lower possibility in the Kiremt than in the other two seasons. The researchers' results are reliable with those from studies in the Hare watershed in the RVLB and the Upper Blue Nile Basin, indicating a 0.22 probability of occurrence of meteorological drought in the Belg and 0.16 in the Kiremt [72][73]. The range of drought probability of occurrence seen for different months shows a higher temporal climate variability in the area. A study on drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) stated a gradual increase in the frequency of drought events by the end of the century. For example, the frequency of drought events for 2085 will increase by 7.6% (SPEI-6) and 18.8% (SPEI-12) for RCP 8.5 [74].
The findings suggest that climate change impacts on drought occurrence in the Bilate watershed will exacerbate water scarcity in the future. Previous studies confirmed that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydro climatological variability [75] with frequent drought occurrences [68]. The researchers also understand that these droughts will have a longer duration than the baseline period due to climate change. A drought with a longer duration would aggravate soil moisture deficit, disrupting hydrological processes like runoff and intensifying the water shortage. In addition, more frequent drought events might reduce soil fertility, further disrupting agricultural activities [76]. As the Ethiopian economy is primarily dependent on agriculture, any negative impact on crop production could affect food security for the increasing population. Therefore, farmers are recommended to adopt drought-resistant crops to cope with possible droughts and look for additional water sources.
The ensemble averages of drought intensity for the baseline, near future, and far future periods under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are shown in Figure 2. The SPI findings indicate that meteorological droughts will be more intense in both future periods, with the intensity being larger in the Belg than in the Kiremt. The most severe drought intensity in the far future period would occur under RCP8.5, reaching −1.71 to −1.79 from October to May (Figure 2a). Similarly, a study of the upper Blue Nile basin noted that drought risk was three times greater in the Belg than in the Kiremt [77]. The findings for agricultural drought are consistent with those for meteorological drought, with the most significant projected increase of intensity being in the Belg season. The most severe agricultural drought intensity would be −1.69 to −1.79 from October to May (Figure 2c).
Since the Belg is one of the crop growing seasons in this watershed [75], an expected increase in the intensity of droughts might affect the crop growing period. Impacts of drought in the Belg season are more challenging than during the Kiremt due to water shortages in dry seasons often inducing devastating effects to the society [78]. The SDI calculation showed that the projected intensity of hydrological drought in the watershed would increase in all seasons, with the most significant increased intensity during the Belg, up to −1.68 in the far future under RCP8.5 (Figure 2b). A previous study in the Hare watershed of the RVLB noted a comparable maximum intensity of −1.83 and −1.42 for SPI and SDI, respectively [73]. Similarly, a study by [79] using two indices, Standardised Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and SPI, reported that drought intensity and average drought duration would significantly increase in the future period (2006–2100) compared to the baseline (1900–2005). Besides, they described that more severe drought hazards would appear over a larger area, particularly in southern and eastern Australia.
Assessment of global drought propensity using reformulated standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-PM) also indicated that due to significant increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, consistent and intensified drought would occur in parts of South America and Africa under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios in the future period (the 2030s, 2050s, 2080s) compared to the baseline (1976–2005) [80]. A study on drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea stated that in 2085, a drought would be intensified by 25.5% and 34.2% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-6). The SPEI-24 is projected to intensify by 37.3% under RCP 4.5 and 53.3% under RCP 8.5 in 2085 compared to the historical period 1981–2010 [74].
Overall, the change in average intensity of meteorological drought in the Bilate watershed during 2071–2100 under RCP8.5 (42.5%) will be more profound than under RCP4.5 (35.2%). The agricultural drought is projected to increase by 28.4% and 33.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The intensity of hydrological drought is expected to increase by 2071–2100 compared to the baseline period, with 30.9% under RCP4.5 and 36.6% under RCP8.5. These findings reveal that the Bilate watershed will experience a more severe cumulative water deficit and longer-lasting droughts. Previous studies conducted in different parts of the world also suggest an increased risk of drought in the 21st century [81][82]. A reduction of available water could result in water stress, reduced crop yields, hunger, and loss of life and property. Water resource managers should consider the findings and implement appropriate water resource management strategies to deal with water scarcity issues in the future. For example, the early warning system for drought monitoring should be developed with climate outlooks and drought indices proposed in this research. Water infrastructures of reservoirs and water harvesting ponds to store the excess water of rainy seasons should be constructed with irrigation systems.

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Yoseph Arba Orke
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