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HandWiki. Fossil Fuel Phase-Out. Encyclopedia. Available online: https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/34826 (accessed on 29 December 2024).
HandWiki. Fossil Fuel Phase-Out. Encyclopedia. Available at: https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/34826. Accessed December 29, 2024.
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Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
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The content is sourced from: https://handwiki.org/wiki/Earth:Fossil_fuel_phase-out

Fossil fuel phase-out is the gradual reduction of the use of fossil fuels to zero use. Current efforts in fossil fuel phase-out involve replacing fossil fuels with alternative energy sources in sectors such as transport, heating and industry.

fossil fuel fossil fuels alternative energy

1. Fossil Fuels

1.1. Coal

Top 5 coal consuming countries to 2017, US EIA data. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1614861
Coal-fired power plants provided 30% of consumed electricity in the United States in 2016.[1] This is the Castle Gate Plant near Helper, Utah. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1088398

Coal use peaked in 2013[2] but to meet the Paris Agreement target of keeping global warming to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) coal use needs to halve from 2020 to 2030.[3] However (As of 2017), coal supplied over a quarter of the world's primary energy[4] and about 40% of the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.[5] Phasing out coal has short-term heath and environmental benefits which exceed the costs,[6] and without it the 2 °C target in the Paris Agreement cannot be met;[7] but some countries still favor coal,[8] and there is much disagreement about how quickly it should be phased out.[9][10]

(As of 2018), 30 countries and many sub-national governments and businesses[11] had become members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, each making a declaration to advance the transition away from unabated coal power generation.[12] (As of 2019), however, the countries which use the most coal have not joined, and some countries continue to build and finance new coal-fired power stations.

In 2019 the UN Secretary General said that countries should stop building new coal power plants from 2020 or face 'total disaster'.[13]

1.2. Oil

Oil is refined into fuel oil, diesel and gasoline. The refined products are primarily for transportation by conventional cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships. Popular alternatives are human-powered transport, public transport, electric vehicles, and biofuels.[14]

1.3. Natural Gas

Natural gas is widely used to generate electricity and has an emission intensity of about 500g/kWh. Heating is also a major source of carbon dioxide emissions. Leaks are also a large source of atmospheric methane.

In some countries natural gas is being used as a temporary "bridge fuel" to replace coal, in turn to be replaced by renewable sources or a hydrogen economy. However this "bridge fuel" may significantly extend the use of fossil fuel or strand assets, such as gas-fired power plants built in the 2020s, as the average plant life is 35 years.[15] Although natural gas assets are likely to be stranded later than oil and coal assets, perhaps not until 2050, some investors are concerned by reputational risk.[16]

Natural gas phase-out is progressing in some regions, for example with increasing use of hydrogen by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG)[17] and changes to building regulations to reduce the use of gas heating.[18]

2. Basis

The reasons for phasing-out fossil fuels are: the health risks of air pollution, mitigation of global warming, and the falling cost of renewable energy.[19]

2.1. Health

Most of the millions[20] of premature deaths from air pollution are due to fossil fuels.[21] Pollution may be indoors e.g. from heating and cooking, or outdoors from vehicle exhaust. One estimate is that the proportion is 65% and the number 3.5 million each year.[22] According to Professor Sir Andy Haines at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine the health benefits of phasing out fossil fuels measured in money (estimated by economists using the value of life for each country) are substantially more than the cost of achieving the 2 degree C goal of the Paris Agreement.[23]

2.2. Global Warming Mitigation

In 2008, James Hansen and nine other scientists published a journal article titled "Target atmospheric CO
2: Where should humanity aim?" which calls for a complete phase-out of coal power by 2030.[24]

More recently, Hansen has stated that continued opposition to nuclear power threatens humanity's ability to avoid dangerous climate change.[25] The letter, co-authored with other climate change experts declared "If we stay on the current path," he said, "those are the consequences we'll be leaving to our children. The best candidate to avoid that is nuclear power. It's ready now. We need to take advantage of it." and "Continued opposition to nuclear power threatens humanity's ability to avoid dangerous climate change."

Also in 2008, Pushker Kharecha and James Hansen published a peer-reviewed scientific study analyzing the effect of a coal phase-out on atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.[26] Their baseline mitigation scenario was a phaseout of global coal emissions by 2050. The authors describe the scenario as follows:

The second scenario, labeled Coal Phase-out, is meant to approximate a situation in which developed countries freeze their CO2 emissions from coal by 2012 and a decade later developing countries similarly halt increases in coal emissions. Between 2025 and 2050 it is assumed that both developed and developing countries will linearly phase out emissions of CO2 from coal usage. Thus in Coal Phase-out we have global CO2 emissions from coal increasing 2% per year until 2012, 1% per year growth of coal emissions between 2013 and 2022, flat coal emissions for 2023–2025, and finally a linear decrease to zero CO2 emissions from coal in 2050. These rates refer to emissions to the atmosphere and do not constrain consumption of coal, provided the CO2 is captured and sequestered. Oil and gas emissions are assumed to be the same as in the BAU [business as usual] scenario.

Kharecha and Hansen also consider three other mitigation scenarios, all with the same coal phase-out schedule but each making different assumptions about the size of oil and gas reserves and the speed at which they are depleted. Under the Business as Usual scenario, atmospheric CO2 peaks at 563 parts per million (ppm) in the year 2100. Under the four coal phase-out scenarios, atmospheric CO2 peaks at 422-446 ppm between 2045 and 2060 and declines thereafter. The key implications of the study are as follows: a phase-out of coal emissions is the most important remedy for mitigating human-induced global warming; actions should be taken toward limiting or stretching out the use of conventional oil and gas; and strict emissions-based constraints are needed for future use of unconventional fossil fuels such as methane hydrates and tar sands.

2.3. Others

The impulse of renewable energy can create jobs through the construction of new power plants and the manufacturing of the equipment that they need, as could be seen in the case of Germany and the wind power industry.[27]

3. Studies About Fossil Fuel Phase-Out

In the Greenpeace and EREC's Energy (R)evolution scenario,[28] the world would eliminate all fossil fuel use by 2090.[29][30][31]

In December 2015, Greenpeace and Climate Action Network Europe released a report highlighting the need for an active phase-out of coal-fired generation across Europe. Their analysis derived from a database of 280 coal plants and included emissions data from official EU registries.[32]

A September 2016 report by Oil Change International, concludes that the carbon emissions embedded in the coal, oil, and gas in currently working mines and fields, assuming that these run to the end of their working lifetimes, will take the world to just beyond the 2 °C limit contained in the 2015 Paris Agreement and even further from the 1.5 °C goal.[33][34][35] The report observes that "one of the most powerful climate policy levers is also the simplest: stop digging for more fossil fuels".[35]:5

In October 2016, the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and 11 other NGOs released a report on the impact of building new coal-fired power plants in countries where a significant proportion of the population lacks access to electricity. The report concludes that, on the whole, building coal-fired power plants does little to help the poor and may make them poorer. Moreover, wind and solar generation are beginning to challenge coal on cost.[36][37][38]

A 2018 study in Nature Energy, suggests that 10 countries in Europe could completely phase out coal-fired electricity generation with their current infrastructure, whilst the United States and Russia could phase out at least 30%.[39]

The GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses assesses how the geopolitical position of 156 countries may change if the world fully transitions to renewable energy resources. Former fossil fuel exporters are expected to lose power, while the positions of former fossil fuel importers and countries rich in renewable energy resources is expected to strengthen.[40]

4. Challenges of Fossil Fuel Phase-Out

The phase-out of fossil fuels involves many challenges, and one of them is the reliance that currently the world has on them. In 2014, fossil fuels provided 81.1% of the primary energy consumption of the world, with approximately 465 exajoules (11,109 megatonnes of oil equivalent). This number is composed by 179 EJ (4,287 Mtoe) of oil consumption; 164 EJ (3,918 Mtoe) of coal consumption, and 122 EJ (2,904 Mtoe) of natural gas consumption.[41]

Fossil fuel phase-out can lead to an increment in electricity prices, because of the new investments needed to replace their share in the electricity mix with alternative energy sources.[42] Another cause to increasing electricity price comes from the need to import the electricity that can't be generated nationally.[43]

Another impact of a phase-out of fossil fuels is in the employment. In the case of employments in the fossil fuel industry, a phase-out is logically undesired, therefore, people in the industry will usually oppose any measures that put their industries under scrutiny.[27] Endre Tvinnereim and Elisabeth Ivarsflaten studied the relationship between employment in the fossil fuel industry with the support to climate change policies. They proposed that one opportunity for displaced drilling employments in the fossil fuel industry could be in the geothermal energy industry. This was suggested as a result of their conclusion: people and companies in the fossil fuel industry will likely oppose measures that endanger their employments, unless they have other stronger alternatives.[44] This can be extrapolated to political interests, that can push against the phase-out of fossil fuels initiative. One example is how the vote of United States Congress members is related to the preeminence of fossil fuel industries in their respective states.[45]

5. Legislation and Initiatives to Phase Out Coal

5.1. Major Economies

In 8 June 2015, several newspapers ran an article wrote that the leaders of the Group of Seven (or G7, consisting of Canada , France , Germany , Italy, Japan , the United Kingdom , and the United States ) agreed to phase-out fossil fuel use by 2100,[46][47] as part of the efforts to keep global temperature increase under 2 °C. This was done as a prelude for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (a.k.a. COP 21) hosted in Paris, on December of the same year.

5.2. Africa

South Africa

As of 2007, South Africa's power sector is the 8th highest global emitter of CO2.[48] In 2005/2006, 77% of South Africa's energy demand was directly met by coal,[49] and when current projects come online, this ratio will increase in the near term.

There are no plans to phase out coal-fired power plants in South Africa, and indeed, the country is investing in building massive amounts of new coal-fired capacity to meet power demands, as well as modernizing the existing coal-fired plants to meet environmental requirements.

On 6 April 2010, the World Bank approved a $3.75B loan to South Africa to support the construction of the world's 4th largest coal-fired plant, at Medupi.[50] The proposed World Bank loan includes a relatively small amount – $260 million – for wind and solar power.

Rated at 4800 MW, Medupi Power Station would join other mammoth coal-fired power plants already in operation in the country, namely Kendal Power Station (4100 MW), Majuba Power Station (4100 MW), and Matimba Power Station (4000 MW), as well as a similar-capacity Kusile Power Station, at 4800 MW, currently under construction. Kusile is expected to come online in stages, starting in 2012, while Medupi is expected to first come online in 2013, with full capacity available by 2017. These schedules are provisional, and may change.

Since 2008, South Africa's government started funding solar water heating installations. As of January 2016, there have been 400 000 domestic installations in total, with free-of-charge installation of low-pressure solar water heaters for low-cost homes or low-income households which have access to the electricity grid, while other installations are subsidised.[51]

5.3. Americas

Canada

In 2005, Canada annually burned 60 million tonnes of coal, mainly for electrical power,[52] increasing by 15 percent annually. In November 2016, the Government of Canada announced plans to phase out coal-fired electricity generation by 2030.[53] (As of 2020), only four provinces burn coal to generate electricity: Alberta, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Saskatchewan.[54] Canada aims to generate 90% of its electricity from non-emitting sources by 2030.[55] Already, it generates 82% from non-emitting sources.[56]

Beginning in 2005, Ontario planned coal phase-out legislation as a part of the Ontario electricity policy.[57] The province annually consumed 15 million tonnes of coal in large power plants to supplement nuclear power. Nanticoke Generating Station was a major source of air pollution,[58] and Ontario suffered "smog days" during the summer.[59] In 2007, Ontario's Liberal government committed to phasing out all coal generation in the province by 2014. Premier Dalton McGuinty said, "By 2030 there will be about 1,000 more new coal-fired generating stations built on this planet. There is only one place in the world that is phasing out coal-fired generation and we're doing that right here in Ontario."[60] The Ontario Power Authority projected that in 2014, with no coal generation, the largest sources of electrical power in the province will be nuclear (57 percent), hydroelectricity (25 percent), and natural gas (11 percent).[61] In April 2014, Ontario was the first jurisdiction in North America to eliminate coal in electricity generation.[62] The final coal plant in Ontario, Thunder Bay Generating Station, stopped burning coal in April 2014.[63]

United States

In 2017, fossil fuels provided 81 percent of the energy consumed in the United States, down from 86 percent in 2000.[64]

Estimated effect of a carbon tax on sources of United States electrical generation (US Energy Information Administration). https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1393905
Total energy consumption in the US by source: comparing fossil fuels with nuclear and renewable energy. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1302275
US electrical generation: fossil fuels vs. nuclear and renewable energy. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1232613

In 2007, 154 new coal-fired plants were on the drawing board in 42 states.[65] By 2012, that had dropped to 15, mostly due to new rules limiting mercury emissions, and limiting carbon emissions to 1,000 pounds of CO2 per megawatt-hour of electricity produced.[66]

In July 2013, US Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz outlined Obama administration policy on fossil fuels:

In the last four years, we’ve more than doubled renewable energy generation from wind and solar power. However, coal and other fossil fuels still provide 80 percent of our energy, 70 percent of our electricity, and will be a major part of our energy future for decades. That’s why any serious effort to protect our kids from the worst effects of climate change must also include developing, demonstrating and deploying the technologies to use our abundant fossil fuel resources as cleanly as possible.[67]

Then-US Energy Secretary Steven Chu and researchers for the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory have noted that greater electrical generation by non-dispatchable renewables, such as wind and solar, will also increase the need for flexible natural gas-powered generators, to supply electricity during those times when solar and wind power are unavailable.[68][69] Gas-powered generators have the ability to ramp up and down quickly to meet changing loads.[70]

In the US, many of the fossil fuel phase-out initiatives have taken place at the state or local levels.

California electricity generation by source, 2010 (data from US EIA). https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1832636
Sources of electricity generated in Maine. 2010 (US EIA). https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1187616
Sources of electricity generated in Texas, 2010 (US EIA). https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1241555
Sources of electricity generation in Washington state, 2010 (US EIA). https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1423668
California

California 's SB 1368 created the first governmental moratorium on new coal plants in the United States. The law was signed in September 2006 by Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger,[71] took effect for investor-owned utilities in January 2007, and took effect for publicly owned utilities in August 2007. SB 1368 applied to long-term investments (five years or more) by California utilities, whether in-state or out-of-state. It set the standard for greenhouse gas emissions at 1,100 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour, equal to the emissions of a combined-cycle natural gas plant. This standard created a de facto moratorium on new coal, since it could not be met without carbon capture and sequestration.[72]

Maine

On 15 April 2008, Maine Governor John E. Baldacci signed LD 2126, "An Act To Minimize Carbon Dioxide Emissions from New Coal-Powered Industrial and Electrical Generating Facilities in the State." The law, which was sponsored by Rep. W. Bruce MacDonald (D-Boothbay), requires the Board of Environmental Protection to develop greenhouse gas emission standards for coal gasification facilities. It also puts a moratorium in place on building any new coal gasification facilities until the standards are developed.[73]

Oregon

In early March 2016, Oregon lawmakers approved a plan to stop paying for out-of-state coal plants by 2030 and require a 50 percent renewable energy standard by 2040.[74] Environmental groups such as the American Wind Energy Association and leading Democrats praised the bill.

Texas

In 2006, a coalition of Texas groups organized a campaign in favor of a statewide moratorium on new coal-fired power plants. The campaign culminated in a "Stop the Coal Rush" mobilization, including rallying and lobbying, at the state capital in Austin, Texas on 11 and 12 February 2007.[75] Over 40 citizen groups supported the mobilization.[76]

In January 2007, a resolution calling for a 180-day moratorium on new pulverized coal plants was filed in the Texas Legislature by State Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson (R-Waco) as House Concurrent Resolution 43.[77] The resolution was left pending in committee.[78] On 4 December 2007, Rep. Anderson announced his support for two proposed integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) coal plants proposed by Luminant (formerly TXU).[79]

Washington State

Washington has followed the same approach as California, prohibiting coal plants whose emissions would exceed those of natural gas plants. Substitute Senate Bill 6001 (SSB 6001), signed on 3 May 2007, by Governor Christine Gregoire, enacted the standard.[80] As a result of SSB 6001, the Pacific Mountain Energy Center in Kalama was rejected by the state. However, a new plant proposal, the Wallula Energy Resource Center, shows the limits of the "natural gas equivalency" approach as a means of prohibiting new coal plants. The proposed plant would meet the standard set by SSB 6001 by capturing and sequestering a portion (65 percent, according to a plant spokesman) of its carbon.[80]

Utility Action in the US
  • Progress Energy Carolinas[81] announced on 1 June 2007, that it was beginning a two-year moratorium on proposals for new coal-fired power plants while it undertook more aggressive efficiency and conservation programs. The company added, "Additional reductions in future electricity demand growth through energy efficiency could push the need for new power plants farther into the future."[82]
  • Public Service of Colorado[83] concluded in its November 2007 Resource Plan: "In sum, in light of the now likely regulation of CO2 emissions in the future due to broader interest in climate change issues, the increased costs of constructing new coal facilities, and the increased risk of timely permitting to meet planned in-service dates, Public Service does not believe it would not be prudent to consider at this time any proposals for new coal plants that do not include CO2 capture and sequestration.[84]
  • Xcel Energy noted in its 2007 Resource Plan that "given the likelihood of future carbon regulation, we have only modeled a future coal-based resource option that includes carbon capture and storage."[84]
  • Minnesota Power Company[85] announced in December 2007 that it would not consider a new coal resource without a carbon solution.[84]
  • Avista Utilities[86] announced that it does not anticipate pursuing coal-fired power plants in the foreseeable future.[84]
  • NorthWestern Energy[87] announced on 17 December 2007, that it planned to double its wind power capacity over the next seven years and steer away from new baseload coal plants. The plans are detailed in the company's 2007 Montana Electric Supply Resource Plan.[88]
  • California Energy Commission (CEC) has initiated its review of two 53.4-megawatt solar thermal power plants that will each include a 40-megawatt biomass power plant to supplement the solar power.[89]

5.4. Asia

China

China is confident of achieving a rich zero carbon economy by 2050.[90]

China's exceedingly high energy demand has pushed the demand for relatively cheap coal-fired power. Each week, another 2 GW of coal-fired power is put online in China. Coal supplies about 80% of China's energy needs today, and that ratio is expected to continue, even as overall power usage grows rapidly. Serious air quality deterioration has resulted from the massive use of coal and many Chinese cities suffer severe smog events.[91]

As a consequence the region of Beijing has decided to phase out all its coal-fired power generation by the end of 2015.[92]

In 2009, China had 172 GW of installed hydro capacity the largest in the world, producing 16% of China's electricity, the Eleventh Five-Year Plan has set a 300 GW target for 2020. China built the world's largest power plant of any kind, the Three Gorges Dam.

In addition to the huge investments in coal power, China has 32[93] nuclear reactors under construction, the highest number in the world.

Analysis in 2016, showed that China's coal consumption appears to have peaked in 2014.[94][95]

India

Coal Production in India, with a 1959-2020 axis (appears to end at 2012). https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1745693

India is the third largest consumer of coal in the world. India's federal energy minister is planning to stop importing thermal coal by 2018.[96] The annual report of India's Power Ministry has a plan to grow power by about 80 GW as part of their 11th 5-year plan, and 79% of that growth will be in fossil fuel–fired power plants, primarily coal.[97] India plans four new "ultra mega" coal-fired power plants as part of that growth, each 4000 MW in capacity. (As of 2015), there are six nuclear reactors under construction. In the first half of 2016, the amount of coal-fired generating capacity in pre-construction planning in India fell by 40,000 MW, according to results released by the Global Coal Plant Tracker.[98] In June 2016, India's Ministry of Power stated that no further power plants would be required in the next three years, and "any thermal power plant that has yet to begin construction should back off."[99]

In cement production, carbon neutral biomass is being used to replace coal for reducing carbon foot print drastically.[100][101]

Japan

Japan, the world's third-largest economy, made a major move to use more fossil fuels in 2012, when the nation shut down nuclear reactors following the Fukishima accident. Nuclear, which had supplied 30 percent of Japanese electricity from 1987 to 2011, supplied only 2 percent in 2012 (hydropower supplied 8 percent). Nuclear electricity was replaced with electricity from petroleum, coal, and liquified natural gas. As a result, electricity generation from fossil fuels rose to 90 percent in 2012.[102]

In January 2017, the Japanese government announced plans to build 45 new coal-fired power plants in the next ten years, largely to replace expensive electricity from petroleum power plants.[103]

5.5. Europe

In July 2014, CAN Europe, WWF European Policy Office, HEAL, EEB and Climate-Alliance Germany published a report calling for the decommissioning of the thirty most polluting coal-fired power plants in Europe.[104]

Austria

Austria closed its last coal power plant in 2020.[105]

Belgium

After the government denied a 2009 application to build a new power plant in Antwerp, the Langerlo power station burned its last ton of coal in March 2016, ending the use of coal fired power plants in Belgium.[106]

Denmark

As part of their Climate Policy Plan, Denmark stated that it will phase out oil for heating purposes and coal by 2030. Additionally, their goal is to supply a 100% of their electricity and heating needs with renewable energy five years later (i.e. 2035).[107]

Finland

In 2020 Finland may be the only European country that invested in new coal power in Europe.[108] Uniper Dattel4 Germany is major owned by Finnish major state owned company Fortum.[109][110] Finland does not count Uniper emissions in its country specific data even if it would import the electricity in Finland. Net imports of electricity was 23 % of supply in 2018.[111] According o Felix Matthes Öko-institute total Datteln4 emission during 2020-2030 will be 10–15 million tn CO2[112]

France

On 30 December 2017, Emmanuel Macron signed a law planning the end of fossil-fuel extraction in French territories. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1324244

In December 2017, to fight against global warming, France adopted a law banning new fossil fuel exploitation projects and closing current ones by 2040 in all of its territories. France thus became the first country to programme the end of fossil fuel exploitation.[113][114]

Germany

3,500-4,000 environmental activists blocking a coal mine to limit climate change (Ende Gelände 2016). https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1681527
German electricity generation by source, 2000–2017. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1681307

Hard coal mining has long been subsidized in Germany, reaching a peak of €6.7 billion in 1996 and dropping to €2.7 billion in 2005 due to falling output. These subsidies represent a burden on public finances and imply a substantial opportunity cost, diverting funds away from other, more beneficial public investments.[115]

In 2007, Germany announced plans to phase out hard coal-industry subsidies by 2018, a move which is expected to end hard coal mining in Germany. [needs update][116][117][118][119][120] This exit is later than the EU-mandated end by 2014.[121] Solar and wind are major sources of energy and renewable energy generation, around 15% as of December 2013,[122] and growing. Coal is still the largest source of power in Germany.

In 2007, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her party agreed to legislation to phase out Germany's hard coal mining sector. That does not mean that they support phasing out coal in general. There were plans to build about 25 new plants in the coming years. Most German coal power plants were built in the 1960s, and have a low energy efficiency. Public sentiment against coal power plants is growing and the construction or planning of some plants has been stopped.[116][117][118][119][120] A number are under construction and still being built. No concrete plan is in place to reduce coal-fired electricity generation. As of October 2015, the remaining coal plants still under planning include: Niederaussem, Profen, and Stade. The coal plants currently under construction include: Mannheim, Hamm D, Datteln, and Willhelmshaven. Between 2012 and 2015, six new plants went online. All of these plants are 600–1800  MWe.[123]

In 2014, Germany's coal consumption dropped for the first time, having risen each year since the low during the 2009 recession.[124]

A 2014 study, found that coal is not making a comeback in Germany, as is sometimes claimed. Rather renewables have more than offset the nuclear facilities that have been shut down as a result of Germany's nuclear phase-out (Atomausstieg). Hard coal plants now face financial stringency as their operating hours are cut back by the market. But in contrast, lignite-fired generation is in a safe position until the mid-2020s unless government policies change. To phase-out coal, Germany should seek to strength the emissions trading system (EU-ETS), consider a carbon tax, promote energy efficiency, and strengthen the use of natural gas as a bridge fuel.[125]

In 2016, the German government and affected lignite power plant operators Mibrag, RWE, and Vattenfall reached an understanding (Verständigung) on the transfer of lignite power plant units into security standby (Überführung von Braunkohlekraftwerksblöcken in die Sicherheitsbereitschaft). As a result, eight lignite-fired power plants are to be mothballed and later closed, with the first plant scheduled to cease operation in October 2016 and the last in October 2019. The affected operators will receive state compensation for foregone profits. The European Commission has declared government plans to use €1.6 billion of public financing for this purpose to be in line with EU state aid rules.[126]

A 2016 study, found that the phase-out of lignite in Lusatia (Lausitz) by 2030 can be financed by future owner EPH in a manner that avoids taxpayer involvement. Instead, liabilities covering decommissioning and land rehabilitation could be paid by EPH directly into a foundation, perhaps run by the public company LMBV. The study calculates the necessary provisions at €2.6 billion.[127][128]

In November 2016, the German utility STEAG announced it will be decommissioning five coal-fired generating units in North Rhine-Westphalia and Saarland due to low wholesale electricity prices.[129][130]

A coal phase-out for Germany is implied in Germany's Climate Action Plan 2050, environment minister Barbara Hendricks said in an interview on 21 November 2016. "If you read the Climate Action Plan carefully, you will find that the exit from coal-fired power generation is the immanent consequence of the energy sector target. ... By 2030 ... half of the coal-fired power production must have ended, compared to 2014", she said.[131][132]

Plans to cut down the ancient Hambach Forest to extend the Hambach open pit mine in 2018 have resulted in massive protests. On 5 Oct 2018 a German court ruled against the further destruction of the forest for mining purposes. The ruling states, the court needs more time to reconsider the complaint. Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, welcomed the court's ruling. The forest is located approximately 29 km west of the city center of Cologne (specifically Cologne Cathedral).[133]

In January 2019 the German Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment initiates Germany's plans to entirely phase out and shut down the 84 remaining coal-fired plants on its territory by 2038.[134]

Netherlands

On 22 September 2016, the Dutch parliament voted for a 55% cut in CO
2 emissions by 2030, a move which would require the closure of the country's five coal-fired power plants. The vote is not binding on the government however.[135]

Spain

In October 2018, the Sánchez government and Spanish Labour unions settled an agreement to close ten Spanish coal mines at the end of 2018. The government pre-engaged to spend 250 million Euro to pay for early retirements, occupational retraining and structural change. In 2018, about 2.3 per cent of the electric energy produced in Spain was produced in coal-burning power plants.[136]

Sweden

As of 2019 coal is used to a limited extent to fuel three co-generation plants in Sweden that produces electricity and district heating. The operators of these plants plan to phase out coal by 2020,[137] 2022[138] and 2025[139] respectively. In August 2019 one of the three remaining coal burning power producers announced that they had phased out coal prematurely in 2019 instead of 2020.[140] Värtaverket was scheduled to close in 2022, but closed in 2020.[141]

In addition to heat and power coal is also used for steel production, there are long term plans to phase out coal from steel production: Sweden is constructing hydrogen-based pilot steel plant to replace coke and coal usage in steel production.[142] Once this technology is commercialized with the hydrogen generated from renewable energy sources (biogas or electricity), the carbon foot print of steel production would reduce drastically.[101]

United Kingdom

The remaining 4 coal-fired power stations will be closed by 2024 or earlier.[143][144] This will not be a complete phase-out of fossil fuels because gas-fired power stations will continue to provide some firm power.[145]

Scotland's last coal power station closed in 2016[146] and Wales' last coal power station closed in December 2019.[147]

Coal power in England has also reduced substantially. In generating capability there has been the closure of the Hinton Heavies, and closure or conversion to biomass of the remaining coal plants will be completed by 2024. In terms of actual production, in 2018 it was less than at any time since the industrial revolution. The first "coal free day" took place in 2017. Coal supplied 5.4% of UK electricity in 2018, down from 30% in 2014,[148] and 70% in 1990.[144]

Gas heating will be banned for new homes by 2025.[149] Petrol and diesel cars will be banned in 2035.[150]

5.6. Oceania

Australia

Electricity generation from renewable sources in Australia in 2010. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=2063684

The Australian Greens party have proposed to phase out coal power stations. The NSW Greens proposed an immediate moratorium on coal-fired power stations and want to end all coal mining and coal industry subsidies. The Australian Greens and the Australian Labor Party also oppose nuclear power. The Federal Government and Victorian State Government want to modify existing coal-fired power stations into clean coal power stations. The Federal Labor government extended the mandatory renewable energy targets, an initiative to ensure that new sources of electricity are more likely to be from wind power, solar power and other sources of renewable energy in Australia. Australia is one of the largest consumers of coal per capita, and also the largest exporter. The proposals are strongly opposed by industry, unions[151] and the main Opposition Party in Parliament (now forming the party in government after the September 2013 election).

New Zealand

In October 2007, the Clark Labour government introduced a 10 year moratorium on new fossil fuel thermal power generation.[152] The ban was limited to state-owned utilities, although an extension to the private sector was considered. The new government under MP John Key (NZNP) elected in November 2008 repealed this legislation.

In 2014, almost 80 per cent of the electricity produced in New Zealand was from sustainable energy.[153] On 6 August 2015, Genesis Energy Limited announced that it would close its two last coal-fired power stations.[154]

6. Phase-Out of Fossil Fuel Vehicles

Many countries and cities have introduced bans on the sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles, requiring all new cars to be electric vehicles or otherwise powered by clean, non-emitting sources.[155][156] Such bans include the United Kingdom by 2035[157] and Norway by 2025. Many transit authorities are working to purchase only electric buses while also restricting use of ICE vehicles in the city center to limit air pollution. Many US states have a zero-emissions vehicle mandate, incrementally requiring a certain percent of cars sold to be electric.

7. Public Opinion

7.1. Opinion Polls

Opinion Research

In October 2007, Civil Society Institute released the results of a poll of 1,003 US citizens conducted by Opinion Research Corporation.

The authors of the poll reported: "75 percent of Americans—including 65 percent of Republicans, 83 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of Independents—would 'support a five-year moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in the United States if there was stepped-up investment in clean, safe renewable energy—such as wind and solar—and improved home energy-efficiency standards.' Women (80 percent) were more likely than men (70 percent) to support this idea. Support also was higher among college graduates (78 percent) than among those who did not graduate from high school (68 percent)."[159]

The exact question posed by the survey was as follows: "More than half of power plant-generated electricity comes from coal. Experts say that power plants are responsible for about 40 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide pollution linked to global warming. There are plans to build more than 150 new coal-fired power plants over the next several years. Would you support a five-year moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in the United States if there was stepped-up investment in clean, safe and renewable energy—such as wind and solar—and improved home energy-efficiency standards? Would you say definitely yes, probably yes, probably no, definitely no, or don't know."

The results were as follows:[160]

  • 30% "definitely yes"
  • 45% "probably yes"
  • 13% "probably no"
  • 8% "definitely no"
  • 4% "don't know"

Gallup

In 2013, the Gallup organization determined that 41% of Americans wanted less emphasis placed on coal energy, versus 31% who wanted more. Large majorities wanted more emphasis placed on solar (76%), wind (71%), and natural gas (65%).[161]

ABC News/Washington Post

A 2009 ABC/Washington Post poll found 52% of Americans favored more coal mining (33% strongly favored), while 45% opposed (27% strongly opposed). The most support was for wind and solar, which were favored by 91% (79% strongly favored).[162]

7.2. CLEAN Call to Action

In October 2007, fifteen groups led by Citizens Lead for Energy Action Now (CLEAN) called for a five-year moratorium on new coal-fired power plants, with no exception for plants sequestering carbon. The groups included Save Our Cumberland Mountains (Tennessee); Ohio Valley Environmental Council (West Virginia); Cook Inlet Keeper (Alaska); Christians for the Mountains (West Virginia); Coal River Mountain Watch (West Virginia); Kentuckians for the Commonwealth (Kentucky); Civil Society Institute (Massachusetts); Clean Power Now (Massachusetts); Indigenous Environmental Network (Minnesota); Castle Mountain Coalition (Alaska); Citizens Action Coalition (Indiana); Appalachian Center for the Economy & the Environment (West Virginia); Appalachian Voices (NC); and Rhode Island Wind Alliance (Rhode Island).[163]

7.3. Environmental Defense Fund

The US-based Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) has taken a stand in favor of natural gas production and hydraulic fracturing, while pressing for stricter environmental controls on gas drilling, as a feasible way to replace coal.[164] The organization has funded studies jointly with the petroleum industry on the environmental effects of natural gas production. The organization sees natural gas as a way to quickly replace coal, and that natural gas in time will be replaced by renewable energy.[165] The policy has been criticized by some environmentalists.[166] EDF counsel and blogger Mark Brownstein answered:

Demand for natural gas is not going away, and neither is hydraulic fracturing. We must be clear-eyed about this, and fight to protect public health and the environment from unacceptable impacts. We must also work hard to put policies in place that ensure that natural gas serves as an enabler of renewable power generation, not an impediment to it. We fear that those who oppose all natural gas production everywhere are, in effect, making it harder for the U.S. economy to wean itself from dirty coal.
—Mark Brownstein, EDF council[167]

7.4. Other Groups Supporting a Coal Moratorium

  • 1Sky[168]
  • Co-op America[169]
  • Energy Action Coalition
  • Kansas Sierra Club[170]
  • Lead for Energy Action Now (CLEAN)[171]
  • Rainforest Action Network[172]
  • Rising Tide Australia[173]
  • Sierra Club[174]
  • SixDegrees.org[175]
  • Step It Up 2007[176]

7.5. Shareholder Resolutions in Favor of a Coal Moratorium

  • Trillium Asset Management, a social investment management company, submitted the resolution "Moratorium on Coal Financing" to Bank of America in the 2007–2008 shareholder resolution season. The resolution concluded:

RESOLVED: Shareholders request that BOA's board of directors amend its GHG emissions policies to observe a moratorium on all financing, investment and further involvement in activities that support MTR coal mining or the construction of new coal-burning power plants that emit carbon dioxide.[177]

7.6. Prominent Individuals Supporting a Coal Moratorium

  • US politician Al Gore stated:[178]
If you're a young person looking at the future of this planet and looking at what is being done right now, and not done, I believe we have reached the stage where it is time for civil disobedience to prevent the construction of new coal plants that do not have carbon capture and sequestration.
  • Banker and financier Tom Sanzillo, currently First Deputy Comptroller for the state of New York, called for a moratorium on new coal plants in the state of Iowa. Citing slow growth in electricity demand and better alternative sources of energy, Sanzillo said, "It's not only good public policy, it's great economics."[179]

7.7. Prominent Individuals Supporting a Coal Phase-Out

  • Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, called for replacing all fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy in twenty years.[180]

7.8. Mayors Supporting a Coal Moratorium

On 13 October 2007, Pocatello, Idaho, mayor Roger Chase told other mayors from across the state attending an Association of Idaho Cities legislative committee that he favored a moratorium no new coal plants in the state.[181]

On 1 June 2007, Park City, Utah, mayor Dana Wilson wrote a letter to Warren Buffett expressing the city's opposition to three coal plants proposed by Rocky Mountain Power.[182]

In November 2007, Salt Lake City mayor Rocky Anderson expressed his support for a coal moratorium at a rally organized by the Step It Up! campaign.[183]

In December 2007, Charlottesville, VA, mayor Dave Norris blogged in favor of a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants.[184] On 19 December 2007, Charlottesville passed the Charlottesville Clean Energy Resolution putting the city on record as supporting a moratorium.[185]

7.9. Local Governments Supporting a Coal Moratorium

In January 2008, Black Hawk County (Iowa) Health Board recommended that the state adopt a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants until it enacts tougher air pollution standards.[186]

8. Alternative Sources of Energy

Alternative energy refers to any source of energy that can substitute the role of fossil fuels. Renewable energy, or energy that is harnessed from renewable sources, is an alternative energy. However, alternative energy can refer to non renewable sources as well, like nuclear energy. Between the alternative sources of energy are: solar energy, hydroelectricity, marine energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, biofuels, ethanol and Hydrogen.

Energy efficiency is complementary to the use of alternative energy sources, when phasing-out fossil fuels.

8.1. Renewable Energy

The worldwide growth of renewable energy is shown by the green line[187] https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1726857

Renewable energy is energy that comes from resources which are naturally replenished such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves, and geothermal heat. (As of 2014), 19% of global final energy consumption comes from renewable resources, with 9% of all energy from traditional biomass, mainly used for heating, 1% from biofuels, 4% from hydroelectricity and 4% from biomass, geothermal or solar heat. Popular renewables (wind, solar, geothermal and biomass for power) accounted for another 1.4% and are growing rapidly.[188] While renewable energy supplies are growing and have displaced coal in some regions, the amount of coal burned in 2021, is expected to be the same as it was in 2014.[189]

8.2. Hydroelectricity

Chief Joseph Dam near Bridgeport, Washington, US, is a major run-of-the-river station without a sizeable reservoir. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1382567

In 2015, hydroelectric energy generated 16.6% of the world's total electricity and 70% of all renewable electricity.[190] In Europe and North America environmental concerns around land flooded by large reservoirs ended 30 years of dam construction in the 1990s. Since then large dams and reservoirs continue to be built in countries like China, Brazil and India. Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity and small hydro have become popular alternatives to conventional dams that may create reservoirs in environmentally sensitive areas.

8.3. Wind Power

Lillgrund Wind Farm in Sweden. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1345157
First wind farm consisting of 7,5 MW Enercon E-126 turbines, Estinnes, Belgium, 20 July 2010, two months before completion; note the 2-part blades. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1201086

A wind farm is a group of wind turbines in the same location used to produce electric power. A large wind farm may consist of several hundred individual wind turbines, and cover an extended area of hundreds of square miles, but the land between the turbines may be used for agricultural or other purposes. A wind farm may also be located offshore.

Wind power has grown dramatically since 2005 and by 2015 supplied almost 1% of global energy consumption.[191]

Many of the largest operational onshore wind farms are located in the United States and China. The Gansu Wind Farm in China has over 5,000 MW installed with a goal of 20,000 MW by 2020. China has several other "wind power bases" of similar size. The Alta Wind Energy Center in California , United States is the largest onshore wind farm outside of China, with a capacity of 1020 MW of power.[192] As of February 2012, the Walney Wind Farm in the United Kingdom is the largest offshore wind farm in the world at 367 MW, followed by Thanet Offshore Wind Project (300 MW), also in the United Kingdom. As of February 2012, the Fântânele-Cogealac Wind Farm in Romania is the largest onshore wind farm in Europe at 600 MW.[193]

There are many large wind farms under construction and these include Sinus Holding Wind Farm (700 MW), Anholt Offshore Wind Farm (400 MW), BARD Offshore 1 (400 MW), Clyde Wind Farm (350 MW), Greater Gabbard wind farm (500 MW), Lincs Wind Farm (270 MW), London Array (1000 MW), Lower Snake River Wind Project (343 MW), Macarthur Wind Farm (420 MW), Shepherds Flat Wind Farm (845 MW), and Sheringham Shoal (317 MW).

Wind power in Denmark produced the equivalent of 42.1% of total electricity consumption in 2015,[194][195] however, use of wind for heating is minor.[196][197][198][199]

8.4. Solar

In 2017, solar power provided 1.7% of total worldwide electricity production, growing at 35% per annum.[200] By 2020 the solar contribution to global final energy consumption is expected to exceed 1%.[201]

Solar Photovoltaics

The 71.8 MW Lieberose Photovoltaic Park in Germany. https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1348262

Solar photovoltaic cells convert sunlight into electricity and many solar photovoltaic power stations have been built. The size of these stations has increased progressively over the last decade with frequent new capacity records. Many of these plants are integrated with agriculture and some use innovative tracking systems that follow the sun's daily path across the sky to generate more electricity than conventional fixed-mounted systems. Solar power plants have no fuel costs or emissions during operation.

Concentrated Solar Power

The 150 MW Andasol solar power station is a commercial parabolic trough solar thermal power plant, located in Spain. The Andasol plant uses tanks of molten salt to store solar energy so that it can continue generating electricity even when the sun isn't shining.[202] https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?curid=1269368

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) systems use lenses or mirrors and tracking systems to focus a large area of sunlight into a small beam. The concentrated heat is then used as a heat source for a conventional power plant. A wide range of concentrating technologies exists; the most developed are the parabolic trough, the concentrating linear fresnel reflector, the Stirling dish and the solar power tower. Various techniques are used to track the Sun and focus light. In all of these systems a working fluid is heated by the concentrated sunlight, and is then used for power generation or energy storage.[203]

8.5. Biofuels

Biofuels, in the form of liquid fuels derived from plant materials, are entering the market. However, many of the biofuels that are currently being supplied have been criticised for their adverse impacts on the natural environment, food security, and land use.[204][205]

8.6. Biomass

Biomass is biological material from living, or recently living organisms, most often referring to plants or plant-derived materials.[206] As a renewable energy source, biomass can either be used directly, or indirectly – once or converted into another type of energy product such as biofuel. Biomass can be converted to energy in three ways: thermal conversion, chemical conversion, and biochemical conversion.

Using biomass as a fuel produces air pollution in the form of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, NOx (nitrogen oxides), VOCs (volatile organic compounds), particulates and other pollutants at levels above those from traditional fuel sources such as coal or natural gas in some cases (such as with indoor heating and cooking).[207][208][209] Utilization of wood biomass as a fuel can also produce fewer particulate and other pollutants than open burning as seen in wildfires or direct heat applications.[210] Black carbon – a pollutant created by combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass – is possibly the second largest contributor to global warming.[211]:56–57 In 2009 a Swedish study of the giant brown haze that periodically covers large areas in South Asia determined that it had been principally produced by biomass burning, and to a lesser extent by fossil fuel burning.[212] Denmark has increased the use of biomass and garbage,[213] and decreased the use of coal.[214]

8.7. Nuclear Energy

The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report identifies nuclear energy as one of the technologies that can provide electricity with less than 5% of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of coal power.[215] There are more than 60 nuclear reactors shown as under construction in the list of Nuclear power by country with China leading at 23. Globally, more nuclear power reactors have closed than opened in recent years but overall capacity has increased.[216] China has stated its plans to double nuclear generation by 2030. India also plans to greatly increase its nuclear power.

Several countries have enacted laws to cease construction on new nuclear power stations. Several European countries have debated nuclear phase-outs and others have completely shut down some reactors. Three nuclear accidents have influenced the slowdown of nuclear power: the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the United States, the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in the USSR, and the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. Following the March 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Germany has permanently shut down eight of its 17 reactors and pledged to close the rest by the end of 2022.[217] Italy voted overwhelmingly to keep their country non-nuclear.[218] Switzerland and Spain have banned the construction of new reactors.[219] Japan's prime minister has called for a dramatic reduction in Japan's reliance on nuclear power.[220] Taiwan's president did the same. Shinzō Abe, prime minister of Japan since December 2012, announced a plan to restart some of the 54 Japanese nuclear power plants and to continue some nuclear reactors under construction.

As of 2016, countries such as Australia, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Norway have no nuclear power stations and remain opposed to nuclear power.[221][222] Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland are phasing-out their nuclear power.[216][222][223][224]

8.8. Energy Efficiency

Moving away from fossil fuels will require changes not only in the way energy is supplied, but in the way it is used, and reducing the amount of energy required to deliver various goods or services is essential. Opportunities for improvement on the demand side of the energy equation are as rich and diverse as those on the supply side, and often offer significant economic benefits.[225]

A sustainable energy economy requires commitments to both renewables and efficiency. Renewable energy and energy efficiency are said to be the "twin pillars" of sustainable energy policy. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy has explained that both resources must be developed in order to stabilize and reduce carbon dioxide emissions:[226]

Efficiency is essential to slowing the energy demand growth so that rising clean energy supplies can make deep cuts in fossil fuel use. If energy use grows too fast, renewable energy development will chase a receding target. Likewise, unless clean energy supplies come online rapidly, slowing demand growth will only begin to reduce total emissions; reducing the carbon content of energy sources is also needed.[226]

The IEA has stated that renewable energy and energy efficiency policies are complementary tools for the development of a sustainable energy future, and should be developed together instead of being developed in isolation.[227]

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