Since the 1990s, the focus of emergency management has gradually turned from emergency rescue and postevent recovery and reconstruction, to prepreventive preparations
[1]. The United States, Britain, Germany, France, Japan, and other countries have promoted major disaster risk assessments. In 2004, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released two reports, respectively titled: “Living with Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives”, and “Disaster risk reduction: a development concern”. In March 2015, the “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030”, finally adopted by the Third World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, pointed out that two of the four priorities for disaster reduction are “Understanding disaster risk” and “Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk”
[2][3]. A snow disaster is large-scale snow, caused by heavy snowfall, which seriously affects the survival and health of humans and livestock. It is a meteorological disaster that can affect and damage traffic, communications, agriculture, and electricity
[4]. In 1977, the snow disaster in Xilingol (Inner Mongolia) caused more than 70% of livestock deaths
[5]. From 2000 to 2012, the agriculture sector of Liaoning Province suffered 20 large-scale disasters resulting from snowstorms
[6]. In 2008, the 100-year snow disaster swept over half of China, and affected circuits, communications, the water supply, and heating, to different degrees. According to statistics, the snow disaster caused 129 deaths; the emergency resettlement of 1.66 million people; 485,000 house collapses; and 178 million mu of crop damage; and resulted in direct economic losses of CNY 151.65 billion. The heavy snow in Heilongjiang Province in 2007 caused 754 houses to collapse. Local snowstorms affected more than 900 people in Suifenhe City and other places, with direct economic losses of nearly CNY 100 million
[7]. It is evident that snow disasters have had a huge impact on human society. Therefore, snow-disaster risk assessment provides an important theoretical basis for predisaster preparations, as well as for scientifically setting the meteorological disaster prevention standards for various regional infrastructures, which is more conducive to promoting the construction of resilient cities and villages, and to fundamentally improving the ability to resist snow disasters.
Snow disasters occur in various forms, such as snow melting leading to avalanches and ice floods, less (more) snow leading to black (white) disasters, and abnormal snowfall in windy weather leading to snowstorms. The existing studies on snow-disaster risk mainly focus on three aspects: (1) Studies on single snow-disaster risks. Some scholars have evaluated the avalanche risk. Schmitt et al. assessed the avalanche risk on the Alps on the basis of topographical parameters, such as slope, aspect and elevation, forestry-related variables, and rocks
[8]. Seliverstov et al.
[9] carried out avalanche risk zoning in Russia on the basis of the recurrence interval of avalanches (avalanche frequency), the percentage of the whole investigated territory that is occupied by avalanche-prone areas, the duration of the avalanche danger period, the probability of a person’s stay in an avalanche-prone area for 1 day (24 h) and for 1 year, and the total population of the area and its density. Cappabianca et al.
[10] presented an avalanche risk estimation procedure that combines a statistical analysis of the snowfall record, iterative simulations of avalanche dynamics, and empirically based vulnerability relations. Germain et al.
[11] reconstructed past avalanche events in the north of the Gaspe Peninsula on the basis of tree rings and assessed the avalanche risk. In 2016, Germain also analyzed the avalanche risk from natural factors, the population, and environmental factors for avalanche disaster in northern Quebec, eastern Canada
[12]. Some scholars have studied the risk of snowstorm disasters. Zhang et al.
[13] calculated the probability of each level of the snowstorm information diffusion theory on the basis of the daily snow precipitation in 63 cities and counties in Heilongjiang Province, China, from 1961 to 2015, and established a hazard index model by using the snowstorm probability and the amount of snow precipitation. Next, a hazard assessment and the regionalization of snowstorms was performed for Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2015, and it was proposed that the high-risk areas increased by 30.7% from the 1960s to the 2010s, as opposed to the 38.9% reduction in the low-risk areas. Liu et al.
[14] constructed the snowstorm disaster risk index on the basis of the frequency of snowstorms and assessed and regionalized the snowstorm risk in northeast China in the future (2020–2099). They showed that, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the areas of the high-risk and light-risk regions would increase, while the areas of the low- and medium-risk regions would decrease. (2) Studies on the impact of snow disasters. Snow disasters have a major impact on agriculture, animal husbandry, and road transportation. Barbolini et al.
[15], on the basis of avalanche accidents that occurred during outdoor winter activities over the Italian Alps in the last 20 years, proposed a vulnerability relation for people directly exposed to avalanches. Sinickas et al.
[16] discussed the effects of the long-term changes in the avalanche occurrence rates in terms of consequences and vulnerability. Casteller et al.
[17] report on the relationship between Nothofagus broadleaf forests and avalanche runout distances. Gao
[18] constructed an agricultural risk estimation index and divided the risks of China’s ice and snow on agriculture. Their results propose that the regions with high snow and freezing occurrences are located in northwestern China, and that the regions with the high-loss areas are located in the coastal and southeastern parts. Sa et al.
[19] established a snow-cover index using passive microwave remote sensing data from 1978 to 2012, and evaluated the risk factors of disaster in the pastoral areas of the Inner Mongolia Grasslands. Liu et al.
[20] constructed the snow-disaster index and the vulnerability index by using the highway network, social and economic development data, meteorology data, and ArcGIS software of Guoluo Prefecture, Qinghai Province, combined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and cluster analysis, to calculate the snow-road-disaster risk index of Guoluo Prefecture. Qi et al.
[21] proposed the risk assessment index system of highway snow cover on the basis of a theoretical model and put forward a distribution of trunk highway snow-disaster risks in Shaanxi. Leone et al.
[22] evaluated the impact of avalanches on road traffic in three Alpine departments (Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Hautes-Alpes, and Alpes-Maritimes). Snow disasters can also amplify the effects of other disasters, such as earthquakes
[23]. (3) Studies on the comprehensive risk regionalization of snow disasters. Wang et al.
[24] further analyzed the formation mechanism of snow disasters (SDs), and constructed the integrated risk index (IRI) of a snow disaster from the aspects of historical disasters, snowfall events, disaster-formation environments, livestock overload, and livestock vulnerability and adaptability. The regions with high IRIs are mainly concentrated in the middle, east, and southwest of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and appear as a contiguous risk belt from northeast to southwest. Liu et al.
[25] conducted a comprehensive analysis of the 18 indexes of snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, based on the hazard harmfulness data collected from historical records and the data collected from the entities affected by this hazard in 2010, and classified the snow-disaster hazards. Gao et al.
[26], on the basis of the logistic regression of 33 snow-disaster events in Qinghai province, with the maximum snow depths, snow-cover days (SCDs), slopes, annual average temperatures, and per capita gross domestic product (GDP), constructed a potential risk assessment model to regionalize the snow-disaster risk in Qinghai Province. Park et al.
[27] selected the pressure index (PI), the state index (SI), and the response index (RI) to assess the comprehensive risk of snow disaster in the metropolitan city of Ulsan. Insang
[28] also assessed and analyzed the snow disaster risks of Daegu City, Ulsan City, Gyeongsangbuk Province, and Gangwon Province on the basis of the subindicators of three hazards, six exposures, four vulnerabilities, and five adaptive capacities.