Quantifying Road Transport Resilience to Emergencies: History
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Subjects: Transportation
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The resilience of road passenger and freight transport differs in the face of external disturbance. Freight transport resilience is better than that of passenger transport. Compared to passenger transport, freight transport is more robust; the impacted speed is slower, the recovery speed is faster, the recovery capacity is stronger, and the affected period is shorter. There is regional heterogeneity in road transport resilience. This heterogeneity is reflected in the whole change process of system performance with external disturbance, including absorption capacity, adaptation capacity, and recovery capacity. The resilience of road transport under different waves of the epidemic is different. Compared to the first wave of the epidemic, the resilience of road transport indicators at all stages has been dramatically improved in the later rebound wave of the epidemic. This can help in the development of evidence-based road transport sustainability strategies.

  • road transport
  • resilience
  • traffic

1. Introduction

As an essential channel for transporting goods and passengers between modern cities, road transportation plays a vital role in the national transportation system, profoundly affecting the logistics, tourism, and transportation industries. Under the impact of emergencies, the road transport industry is under tremendous pressure. Giving full play to its supporting role, the development of the industry is also significantly affected. For example, the sudden outbreak of SARS in November 2002 had a significant impact on road transport and varying degrees of impact on the industry afterward. The outbreak of the novel coronavirus in December 2019 has severely affected China’s social economy. At the same time, the road transport industry has also been impacted severely and under tremendous pressure. A large number of studies have explored the impact of emergencies on road transportation, including the effects of natural disasters such as floods [1] on road transportation, and the effect on road transport of accidents and disasters [2], public health events [3], and social security incidents [4]. Among the above emergencies, the public health event represented by the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on society, with a widespread area (global event), a significant impact on society (work and school suspension, etc.), and a longer impact time (from the beginning of 2020 to now), which has far-reaching significance.
Unlike an endemic disease (a regional disease that arises under particular circumstances) or an epidemic (an infectious disease that can infect a large number of people, and which can occur only in one region, or it can be a global pandemic), COVID-19 is a pandemic disease (affecting a wide range of areas and crossing provincial, national, and even continental boundaries). Transmission is characterized by outbreaks (the sudden appearance of many patients with similar clinical symptoms within a short time in a population in a local area or collective unit). It has the characteristics of time concentration and space aggregation. The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted many studies to understand the interplay between road transport and pandemics [5,6,7]. Most findings show that the pandemic and road closure have harmed road transport [8,9]. However, a few studies have found that the COVID-19 pandemic has positively impacted the road freight turnover rate, becoming more pronounced as the number of confirmed cases increases [10].
Meanwhile, some studies have found that the impact of COVID-19 on road freight has regional heterogeneity [11,12]. However, the existing studies have mainly focused on the external effect of the pandemic on road transport, such as transport demand [13,14], transport capability [15,16], operating transport cost [17], transport performance [18], carbon emission [19,20,21], and the ability of road transport system to resist this impact and maintain its typical performance, which people define as road transport resilience [22,23], is still unclear. As a part of sustainability, resilience is a sub-objective of sustainability [24], representing the changes in road transport sustainability under external influences. Sustainability focuses on long-term changes, while resilience focuses on short-term changes, and the stronger the resilience, the stronger the sustainability. In the face of the changing external environment, quantifying the resilience of road transportation and analyzing its response to this impact from the system’s perspective, as well as its adaptability and recovery ability, are crucial for the sustainable development of road transportation.

2. Quantifying Road Transport Resilience to Emergencies

The word “resilience” is derived from the Latin word “resilio”, meaning “return to the original state” [25], and is usually used to describe the ability of an object or system to return to its original normal state after being affected by a destructive event. The concept of resilience was first applied to physics, which refers to the resilience of a system after external disturbances. In the 1970s, the resilience theory was first applied to the field of systems ecology by Holling [26], a Canadian ecologist. Since then, the discussion of resilience in specific fields has ranged from ecosystems to economic and environmental systems to transportation systems. The resilience of the transport system is related to the shelter and emergency response ability of a city against disasters. As a guarantee for the safety and good operation of a city during disasters, transport resilience has become the focus of researchers of resilient cities. Its general definition can be described as the ability of a transport system to resist the effects of disruptive shocks and maintain its normal functioning [22,23,27,28]. Disruptive shocks here include natural disasters such as earthquakes or heavy rains, accident disasters such as safety incidents, public health events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and other events that could disrupt the normal functioning of transport systems. Among them, the absorption and recovery ability of the transport system from natural disasters and accidents has been extensively studied [29,30,31], but there is less research on public health events, especially large-scale or even global ones, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a large number of studies to understand the impact of COVID-19 on transportation. The existing research has focused on tracking the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on people’s mobility, road, aviation, public transport, cruise ships, and other transportation. People’s mobility and travel modes have been a widely addressed [32,33] because they directly affect transportation. Overall, the impact of COVID-19 on transportation is significant [34,35] and negative [36,37,38], which is agreed generally. Meanwhile, the existing research has also observed that (1) the impact of the pandemic on transport varies by region [39,40]; (2) external intervention in the prevention and control of the pandemic can produce positive temporal and spatial effects [3,6,41]. Among the studies on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transport, the studies in the field of road transport are few, and the studies that have quantified the resilience of road transport to the COVID-19 pandemic are even fewer. The existing research has mostly analyzed the impact of the pandemic on road transport from the perspective of the external system, such as the impact of prevention and control measures on road transport during the pandemic [3,42]. Less attention has been paid to changes in the resilience of road transport systems themselves under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, most of the research has been qualitative [43], while there has been less quantitative research.
On the other hand, as a guarantee for the safety and operation of the system in response to disasters/disturbances, transportation system resilience is becoming the focus of research. Resilience evaluation is mainly carried out in three stages: a conceptual framework [44], a semi-quantitative index system [45,46], and a quantitative assessment [47]. The existing works can be divided into two categories. The first category measures system resilience by comparing the difference in the functional state of the system before and after a disaster. For example, TANG et al. [48] built a timeline according to a scenario, designed the evolution process of system safety resilience of the whole process before, during, and after the disaster, and measured the safety resilience of urban road traffic systems during waterlogging disasters through system performance changes after and before the disaster. However, this assessment method is qualitative. The key indicators to measure the system’s resilience are obtained by estimation, and the results are not necessarily accurate. In addition, the dynamic change process of system resilience with disaster/disturbance cannot be reflected. In terms of specific quantification methods of system resilience, there are mainly resilience measures of transportation systems based on resilience characteristics [30,46], and resilience measures of transportation systems based on optimal models [49,50]. However, most existing methods of quantifying resilience cannot cover all stages or include all resilience capabilities, such as the absorption capacity to resist disturbances, the recovery capability, etc. Furthermore, some quantitative evaluation methods are not consistent with the concept of resilience, such as considering only the performance loss and recovery of the system, but ignoring the robustness [51]. To overcome this problem, the second category analyzes and quantifies the capabilities that help characterize a system’s resilience, such as its absorption capacity, adaptive capacity, recovery capability, etc., and these capabilities are comprehensively measured to quantify the system’s resilience [52,53]. This is a comprehensive approach to dynamically analyzing system resilience while incorporating different performance measures and characterizing resilience as a system property. For example, Guo et al. [54] used performance-based methods to analyze the airport’s strain capacity and resilience during global public health events and integrated some metrics such as aircraft movements, passenger throughput, and freight throughput in the resilience metrics model to analyze and compare the resilience evaluation under different scenarios. The results show that the resilience index can well reflect the recovery of airports under different scenarios. To take into account the dynamic evolution of the system, time-based indexes [51,55] and evaluation frameworks are often used to measure the resilience of the system.

This entry is adapted from the peer-reviewed paper 10.3390/su152014956

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