3. Marine Safety in Relation to Human Errors
A lot of documented research on the influence of the human factor on marine accidents is based on modelling techniques and focuses on the identification and quantification of the probability of human and organizational errors [
26,
27,
28,
29]. The HFACS method, being widely used, defines four cause categories: organizational influence, insufficient supervision, initial conditions for risky actions, and risky actions. In order to solve defined problems from a marine area, Chen et al. [
30] proposed the HFACS—Maritime Accident (HFACS—MA) method. It uses a SHEL model, which stands for Software (S), Hardware (H), Environment (E), and Liveware (L), to describe initial conditions in a traditional HFACS environment. Another method based on a similar idea, HFACS for passenger vessels (HFACS—PV), has been proposed by Ugurlu et al. [
31]. It treats operational conditions as a new HFACS category. The authors of this method believe that operational conditions are not a hidden fault but rather a result of a higher-level component that then leads to the accidental results of dangerous actions. Another modification of the original method is HFACS Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (HFACS—FCM), proposed by Soner et al. [
32], where a fuzzy cognitive map is used to identify and quantify definitions of causes that are initiated in HFACS. It is mainly used to strengthen organizational safety measures for fire accidents and collisions [
33]. Other documented techniques that are a modification of HFACS include FAHP [
34] and ANP [
35], which use a process of fuzzy analytical hierarchy to identify causes contributing to HFACS; HFACS and Chi-square test [
36]; HFACS and FTA [
37]; and fuzzy FTA, ANN, and HFACS [
38].
Another source [
39] shows that human-related factors play a significant role in shipboard accidents. For example, in 2020, 63% of accidents were caused by human error and 37% of accidents had a technical cause. Therefore, this problem should still be presented and possible solutions proposed; all components of a ship’s operation should be carefully analyzed, cataloged, and broken down into specific parts along with their source and a set of recommendations provided on how to counteract their negative effects on the safety of life at sea. An essential element is social and situational systems [
40,
41,
42].
Looking further into significant causes of marine accidents, refraining from proper visual observation, over-reliance on GPS, fatigue, commercial pressures, and distraction are other significant causes of accidents. In an archive issue of The Navigator, David Patraiko, project director at The Nautical Institute, argued that new technologies and changing regulations can generate unknown direct causes of accidents [
43]. A similar analysis can be found in another report from Acejo [
44].
Nevertheless, shipping has maintained a long-term positive safety trend over the past year. Still, the recent COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are major impact factors on global supply chain routes and capacity that have placed enormous stress on the system, with potentially detrimental outcomes: loss of life, loss of ships, exacerbated crew crisis, trade disruption, sanctions burden, and increased cost and reduced availability of bunker fuel. The main places of incidents are Southern China, Indochina, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The increasing number of costly problems may be associated with manning larger ships, the challenges of port congestion due to the shipping boom, and managing ambitious decarbonization goals. Port congestion puts pressure on crews and facilities, meaning there is no room for complacency [
43]. Additionally, the increased use of non-container ships to carry containers, despite bulk carriers not being designed to carry containers, can affect their maneuverability in bad weather, and crews may need assistance in responding appropriately to incidents.
All the mentioned components result in a situation where crew demand is high; however, many skilled and experienced seafarers are leaving the industry. A serious shortage of qualified staff is expected over the next five years. Among those who remain, morale is low as commercial pressures, cargo operations responsibilities, and workloads are high. This work situation is prone to error, with 75% of incidents involving human error, according to an AGCS analysis [
45].
A Dutch study of 100 victims of navigation accidents [
46] showed that the number of causes of accidents ranged from 7 to 58, with a median of 23. Therefore, half of the accidents had 7–23 causes and the other half had 23–58. Sometimes, small things go wrong or small mistakes may seem harmless. However, when these seemingly minor events come together, the result is a casualty. The study found that human error contributed to 96 of 100 accidents. In 93 accidents, there were multiple human errors, usually by two or more people, each making approximately two mistakes.
The key finding was that each human error was identified as a precondition for accidents. This means that if only one of these human errors had not occurred, the chain of events would have been broken, and the accident would not have happened.
There are many demanding aspects of shipping, such as the inability of employees to leave the workplace, extreme weather conditions, long periods away from home, and workplace traffic. Some of these are immutable and reflect the nature of the field. Sometimes, very ordinary situations, such as using the toilet, lead to a procedure breach (rest hours) when, for example, there is only a captain and an officer on duty on board the ship.
Nonetheless, it is possible to modify, supplement, and introduce new strategies or interventions to reduce the impact of these factors on the health and well-being of individual seafarers [
47].
Maritime transport has a safety level that is comparable to rail transport and much higher than road transport. In the case of passenger transport in Europe, the risk of a fatal accident is estimated to be 1.1 for road transport and 0.33 for ferry transport [
48]. In this context, accident risk and, more precisely, the place of the human factor in this risk, are central issues. Indeed, the human factor appears to be the leading cause of accidents at sea [
49]. Among the factors that contribute to incidents are productivity loss (fatigue, stress, health problems), insufficient technical and cognitive skills, insufficient interpersonal competencies (communication difficulties, difficulty in mastering a common language), and organizational aspects (safety training, team management, safety culture) [
34,
49]. Following this, the article “On your watch automation on the bridge” took a closer look at issues of human–machine collaboration and the role of automation in marine accidents [
50]. In the case of a collaborative crew or team, a shared mental representation is one of the key elements behind every safe action. Methods developed in cognitive psychology to analyze this mental structure can be used to assess its impact [
51] on crew performance. A study of this type was conducted some years ago [
51]. However, as presented in [
52], this research remains marginal in maritime transport. Since human error (and usually multiple errors by multiple people) contributes to most marine accidents, preventing human error is essential to reduce the number and severity of maritime accidents. Many types of human error have been described, most of which are not the fault of the human operator. Instead, most of these errors occur due to technology, working environments, and organizational factors that do not account for the capabilities and limitations of the people interacting with them, thus setting up the operator for failure.
In general, there are ways to prevent some human errors or at least increase the chance that such errors will be noticed and corrected by improving the safety culture through better education and training for the better analysis of human factor causes of accidents. As such, we can achieve greater safety at sea and fewer casualties. Summarizing the available data, in the years 2014–2020 there were 6921 injuries, which corresponded to 6211 incidents, and crew members accounted for 81% of the victims [
53]. These numbers are very high and should be a call to action for the marine industry.