Building Information Modelling (BIM) provides a comprehensive platform for designers to gain a deeper understanding of the various building parameters to design buildings that are low in energy consumption
[1,2][1][2].There are many tools on the market that use and are compatible with BIM technology, which facilitates designers from different fields. In addition, as an important part of statistics, regression models can provide a more significant indication of the dispersion and correlation of data. Combining the two allows designers to understand the parameters most critical to energy consumption. BIM is widely used by many companies, and a technical review of BIM applications suggests that two main considerations in BIM utilization are its compatibility with needs and its interoperability with other tools
[3]. These two drivers can make BIM more useful to the community or industry. BIM integration with various tools and sources of data, such as building shape, geometry, materials, and equipment types, allows the creation of accurate energy modelling. Energy modelling practices are important since advanced models can be used to predict the energy consumption of various buildings. This outcome of simulations and estimations of energy consumption need to be compared with actual data acquired from energy meters or submeters recording the electrical, heating, ventilation, or air conditioning usage or the data collected and managed through building management systems in real time at smart buildings
[4]. The validation of models using read data will eventually help to apply artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to predict energy consumption and optimize energy efficiency based on changes in design variants, construction, or usage during the operation phase of the building
[5]. Thus, the current practices of energy modelling are important to test or cross-verify the estimation methods for various design alternatives and shapes. This type of practice will eventually support advanced AI-based optimizations and predictions. Based on lessons from the current practices, AI will be further developed to automate the modelling process using big data created by numerous smart homes and buildings
[4]. These modelling exercises, optimizations, and predictions are significant because they help facility managers and the building sectors to improve the energy performance, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and contribute to sustainable development goals (SDGs), in particular, SDG 7, 11, and 13. These SDGs are respectively connected to the provision of modern and sustainable energy, the development of resilient and sustainable cities, and the implementation of urgent actions to combat climate change. The present
paperdiscussion on building energy performance modelling through regression analysis is very significant and relevant to achieving the SDGs.
2. Implementing BIM in Green Building Design and Construction
2.1. Background of BIM Development in Green Construction
BIM was developed in the 1970s, but the promising concepts and values of BIM were agreed upon in 1999. Since this time, continuous efforts have been made to implement BIM in green building design. Succar revealed that BIM is comprised of interacting processes and technology, which can generate and manage building data throughout the entire project life cycle
[11][6]. Abanda et al. then provided a list of 122 BIM software systems and indicated that the various functions of BIM can be competent in various aspects of green construction, such as building energy performance assessment, lighting analysis, and construction and demolition waste analysis
[12][7]. Wong and Zhou presented a summary of literature reviews on BIM green construction but lacked the detail of specific frameworks to link BIM with green construction
[13][8]. However, Lu et al. presented an essential assessment of the relationship between BIM and green buildings and proposed a Green BIM Triangle organization to conceptualize the interactions between BIM and green buildings.
2.2. Energy Simulation by BIM
BIM stores massive energy-related building information and has a strong capability for information exchange. It can extract all building geometry information from the architectural building model and forecast total energy consumption and make recommendations for energy optimization
[14][9]. With these results, designers can build more sustainable buildings.
Kamel and Memari summarized previous case studies about the use of various BIM tools in energy analysis. These case studies indicate that the building models are mostly developed based on Revit or ArchiCAD
[15][10]. Revit and ArchiCAD have strong conceptual massing capabilities, which can use basic shapes to model building form and orientation in the early design stage. The building energy model can be automatically generated from the building model through the prototyping of an Application Programming Interface (API). The user can update the design concept anytime in Revit or ArchiCAD and the energy model is also updated automatically. The two most prevalent BIM file schemas are gbXML and IFC, which allow data transfer. Feasible energy simulation tools are various, including EnergyPlus, OpenStudio, and GBS. They take either IFC or gbXML as the input to generate the building energy performance results.
3. Research Gap and Challenges for BIM-Based Energy Simulation
3.1. Limitations of Using BIM Tools
Kamel and Memari also investigated the feasibility of data exchange from BIM to BEM and found that the lack of interoperability was a major issue in implementing BIM tools
[15][10].
Table 1 summarizes their findings in data transfer between different tools based on three case studies. Direct transfer from Revit to GBS is the most feasible and convenient solution. Other BIM tools either have missing data or require manual input, which is not user-friendly. Secondly, today’s industry is lacking clear construction standards and codes for various aspects of the BIM application. Thirty-six existing standards of Green BIM application have been studied by Chong et al., but those standards do not pay much attention to the specific execution of BIM application in green building design, such as refurbishment and demolition of green buildings
[16][11]. Lastly, low industrial acceptance of BIM technology is also an important issue. BIM is an innovative technology that requires collaboration among various software tools. The lack of knowledge and expertise in the industry makes workers rely on conventional construction methods
[17][12].
Table 1. Data transfer issues between different BIM tools [15]. Data transfer issues between different BIM tools [10].
21][16]. Jaffa et al. also developed an accurate polynomial model summarizing the influence of heat consumption
[22][17]. Lam et al. studied the energy consumption of office buildings in different climates in China. They imported 12 design variables, including building loads, HVAC system, etc., and surprisingly found that the difference between regression prediction and DOE simulation is within 10%. The result implies that the regression models developed can be used to estimate the likely energy savings or consumption during the initial design stage when different building schemes and design concepts are being considered
[23][18].
Mottahedi et al. obtained a more accurate prediction with a maximum error of 5% on total energy consumption. The researchers made a multiple linear regression model to predict the energy consumption of an office building with seven different shapes
[24][19]. The model includes the regression coefficient for each design parameter, and the format is also adopted in this study to generate an MLR model.
4.3. Limitations of Multiple Linear Regression Models (MLR)
The main issue of using a multiple linear regression model is the multicollinearity, which is caused by the high correlation among internal factors. Multicollinearity makes it hard to interpret the coefficients and thus reduces the capability of the model to present the effect of independent variables. Another issue is that MLR cannot perform accurate predictions as non-linear models produced by machine learning models, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs)
[25][20]. This is because linearity cannot entirely represent reality, and the building model is so complicated that not every detail of the building can be modelled.
4.4. Future Work Direction of MLR
The MLR needs to be improved to detect the multicollinearity issue and illustrate the residuals from its best-fit regression equation. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis should be applied to aid in the regression approach as it can measure the relative standing of the effect limitations, making it possible to replace the design parameters that may influence an insignificant effect on the dependent variable. Moreover, the stepwise function can be used to determine whether to eliminate or add influence variables based on the level of correlation. However, the future trend should focus more on non-linear modelling to obtain more accurate forecast results. More machine-learning models should be introduced to the industries
[25][20].
5. Energy Regression Analysis Combine with BIM Tools
5.1. Necessity for MLR Combine with BIM
Many case studies have indicated the applicability of BIM in energy simulation in
Section 2.1.2Section 2, but few papers have verified the simulation results and tested their validity. The accuracy of the simulation is confronted by the challenge of interoperability issues among BIM tools. Interoperability refers to the ability of two or more systems to exchange information that is needed and available to use the information
[16][11]. Several studies have summarized the potential issues of the two most proposed Data exchange Schemes (IFC, and gbXML). Choi et al. found that data loss frequently occurs when transferring IFC model data into the energy model, leading to incomplete or incorrect IFC files. Moreover, the definitions of IFC can vary with different BIM authoring tools, and thus unexpected errors were often created, reducing the reliability of results
[26][21]. Pinherio et al. pointed out that the gbXML-enabled data exchange is inappropriate for large complex building shapes since the calculated surface areas and space volume differences might exceed the standard engineering tolerance and cause an overestimation of building energy consumption
[27][22]. Moreover, the lack of the geometric representation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems for gbXML might affect the simulation results
[28][23].
These findings above indicate that the energy simulation process produces errors and thus, the model validation is necessary to decide whether the errors are within the acceptable range. Model validation can be achieved by constructing MLR with a series of statistical analyses, such as
T-test, F-test, and ANOVA. MLR can predict the energy simulation results produced from the BIM energy analysis software and represent them in linear equations. The comparison between regression prediction and BIM simulation results can be visualized by generating bar plots on MATLAB.
5.2. Summary of Relevant Case Study
There is a lot of separate literature on regression analysis to predict energy use and BIM to simulate energy models, but few studies have mentioned how the two technologies work together.
Table 2 below is a summary of case studies about the combination of these two techniques.
Table 2.
Summary of case studies about regression analysis combined with BIM tools.