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Nguyen, H.; Randall, M.; Lewis, A. Crop Prices Factors in the Climate Change Context. Encyclopedia. Available online: https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/54368 (accessed on 06 July 2024).
Nguyen H, Randall M, Lewis A. Crop Prices Factors in the Climate Change Context. Encyclopedia. Available at: https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/54368. Accessed July 06, 2024.
Nguyen, Huong, Marcus Randall, Andrew Lewis. "Crop Prices Factors in the Climate Change Context" Encyclopedia, https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/54368 (accessed July 06, 2024).
Nguyen, H., Randall, M., & Lewis, A. (2024, January 25). Crop Prices Factors in the Climate Change Context. In Encyclopedia. https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/54368
Nguyen, Huong, et al. "Crop Prices Factors in the Climate Change Context." Encyclopedia. Web. 25 January, 2024.
Crop Prices Factors in the Climate Change Context
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This entry is adapted from the peer-reviewed paper 10.3390/agriculture14010135

Food security has become a concerning issue because of global climate change and increasing populations. Agricultural production is considered one of the key factors that affects food security. The changing climate has negatively affected agricultural production, which accelerates food shortages. The supply of agricultural commodities can be heavily influenced by climate change, which leads to climate-induced agricultural productivity shocks impacting crop prices.

crop price determinants economic drivers impacts of climate change yield change

1. Introduction

Climate change and food security are currently two of the greatest challenges to the entire world and are highly interlinked [1]. Food security is defined as a state in which “all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life.” by the United Nations’ Committee in World Food Security [2]. Clapp et al. [3] discussed two food security approaches: (i) the traditional approach with four main dimensions (food availability, food access, utilisation, and stability) and (ii) a recent six-dimensional approach with two additional dimensions (agency and sustainability). Climate change may have an impact on food availability, stability, and sustainability via its impact on the productivity of agricultural systems.
Global agriculture has recently been impacted greatly by climate change [4][5][6][7][8]. Its impact is changing how production can be sustainably planned for in the long term. Crop production is sensitive to climate change, which has been accelerating food shortage, a notable challenge to the world [9]. Climate change has an impact on agriculture worldwide and has caused yield losses [10][11][12][13] and undermined food security [11]. Given increasing population sizes and climate change, analysing the stability of food security is crucial to identify priority interventions and policy initiatives to adapt agriculture to climate change [11][14][15][16].
However, there exists a limited number of studies on climate-induced changes in crop yields, which then affects crop price. Existing studies have found significant effects of climate change on crop yield [4][8]. Adverse climate conditions are mainly caused a decline in agricultural output [10][11][12][13]. Recent studies have also found climate change-induced agricultural productivity changes and the influence of climate change on fluctuations of crop prices [5][17][18]. The higher crop prices caused by climate change will increase input prices for food production and then affect food prices and food security. Rising food prices decrease the purchasing power of fixed incomes and result in a lower quantity of food being consumed, which may lead to food insecurity, particularly for low-income populations in developing and underdeveloped countries.
Recent studies using climate models and optimisation approaches for crop planning have been instrumental in laying the foundations of appropriate optimisation models and frameworks to help find solutions that maximise revenue, a product of crop price and yield, and minimise water use [19][20][21]. Crop price is a key input in these optimisation models, but agronomic models to forecast crop prices including multiple variables related to market forces and climate elements are few. The economic and agronomic effects of the previous and proposed models are extremely important to understand fully, but they have not incorporated the climate elements affecting crop prices via yield changes or market factors affecting prices. New agronomic models integrated in optimisation models are expected to guide and inform crop planning and adaptation responses in the context of climate change. A forecasting model for crop prices which includes adequate factors affecting crop prices in the context of climate change will make the optimisation models more robust and applicable to informed decision making in crop planning.
Crop prices are changing in response to changing climatic conditions and other factors. Thus, crop price forecasting plays a crucial role in predicting crop revenue and farmers’ profits, which then affects long-term crop planning. The highly accurate prediction of agricultural crop price may support the cropping decisions made by agribusinesses at all scales, from family-run farms to large commercial ventures.

2. Climate Change and Its Effects on Crop Yields and Prices

2.1. Temperature

Buschmann et al. [22] analysed the effects of heat stress or waves in ten world regions (sub-Saharan Africa, Centrally Planned Asia, Europe, the Former Soviet Union, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, North America, Pacific member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Pacific Asia, and South Asia) with a 30-year baseline period (1971–2000) and a 30-year future period (2071–2100) under the A1B emissions scenario (a balance between fossil and non-fossil fuel-based technologies). Maize and rice faced dramatic price increases while soy had a lower increase which was still quite considerable. Wheat had a slight decrease or significant increase in price depending on the scenarios of heat stress or wave. For maize and rice, the 75th percentile of results increased nine and eleven times, respectively, in the main scenario, while in the other scenario it was two and five times, respectively. For soy, the increase was lower in both scenarios but still 2.6 and 1.7 times, respectively. Wheat price volatility slightly decreased in the main scenario, but it increased significantly in the other scenarios, more than double for the 75th percentile of results.

2.2. Rainfall and Drought

Rainfall and drought have affected crop and food prices across the globe [23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. Most of the studies revealed an increasing trend in prices.
Drought conditions significantly increased (monthly) prices of maize and rice during the growing period in India [24]. Neudert et al. [25] studied rainfall and its impact on the weekly prices of maize, cassava, cowpea, and mung beans in the Mahafaly Plateau region, south-western Madagascar. They found that the prices increased due to rainfall events in the lean season and a strong demand for seeds during these periods. Jain et al. [26] investigated climate change and its effects on the prices of tomatoes and maize in Karnataka state in India and highlighted that drought conditions significantly increase (monthly) food prices during the growing period. Changes in rain also had a small negative impact on the productivity of cassava, but a positive effect on groundnuts. The change in cassava yield indirectly affected its prices [28].

2.3. Carbon Dioxide

Hertel et al. [30] studied the effects of CO2 on crop prices and found that the beneficial effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth were absent; yields were lower and crop prices higher. These results emphasise the importance of better understanding the impact of climate change on crop yields. Marshall et al. [31] acknowledged that changes in carbon dioxide concentration were expected to affect crop yields through their impact on the efficiency of (i) the photosynthetic pathway (radiation use efficiency), and (ii) crop respiration, or transpiration. They revealed that increased CO2 could positively affect crop yields by stimulating plant photosynthesis and improving the water use efficiency of crops, which was likely to promote dryland and irrigated yields. The study documented that the carbon dioxide fertilisation effect was relatively greater for crops with the C3 photosynthetic pathway (wheat, barley, soybeans, and alfalfa hay) than those with the C4 photosynthetic pathway (corn and sorghum).

2.4. Other Elements of Climate

Rude and An [32] examined the effects of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which measures global weather patterns caused by shifts in Pacific Ocean atmospheric pressures. They considered monthly prices of maize, wheat, rice, and soy in the USA and documented that weather events (SOI) could affect wheat and rice crop production, and increase their price volatility, but not maize production or its price volatility.

2.5. Joint Impacts of the Elements of Climate Change

Cui et al. [23] investigated the impacts of climate change on the annual prices of 21 agricultural commodities (rice, wheat, maize, soybean, oilseeds, sugar, and cotton and other crops) under the worst (RCP 8.5) and best (RCP 2.6) climate change scenarios in China. They found evidence of significant disparity among different crops due to the uncertainty of climate change impacts on their production and then on their prices, with the largest uncertainty seen for wheat. For example, the wheat yield would decline significantly in 2050, by 5.79% under RCP2.6 and 9.39% under RCP 8.5, while the rice yield would drop moderately, by 1.51% under RCP 2.6 and 2.62% under RCP 8.5 in 2050. The prices of crops adversely affected by climate change would rise by 2030 and 2050. Wheat, with the highest yield loss, would have the highest level of price increase (6.83% under RCP 2.6 and 17.53% under RCP 8.5), whereas the price of rice would have a moderate increase of approximately 2.66% under RCP 2.6 and 5.29% under RCP 8.5. Cotton would have a drop in price resulting from the positive effect of climate change on its yield under RCP 2.6 (0.27%) and RCP 8.5 (1.37%).

2.6. Previous Review Articles in the Area

Chen and Hsu [29] reviewed the effects of climate change on maize, rice, soy, and wheat in China in different studies by Xiong et al. [33][34] and Wei et al. [35]. Xiong et al. [33] estimated the impacts of climate change on the yields of China’s three major crops to range from +6.2% to −13.6% for rice, from +18.4% to −22.8% for maize, and from +25.1% to −20.4% for wheat by 2050. Wheat yields will both increase the most under relatively advantageous climate change scenarios, which account for CO2 fertilisation—the phenomena that the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases the rate of photosynthesis in plants—and decrease for the least under disadvantageous climate change scenarios, which do not account for CO2 fertilisation. Additionally, rain-fed crops will be much more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change than irrigated crops will be. The effects of climate change on yield are different in different Chinese regions. Higher temperatures increased agricultural output in the China’s northeast region but decreased crop yield in the North China Plain. The predicted increasing precipitation will decrease average yields in southeastern China while helping increase yield in the northwest region.

3. The Effects of Biofuel on Crop Prices

3.1. Biofuel Production and Its Direct Effect on Crop Prices

Condon et al. [36] examined US corn crops and documented that (i) a billion-gallon expansion in ethanol production increased corn prices on average, across studies, by 2–3% and that (ii) the short-term impacts on corn prices per billion gallons of corn ethanol production in response to unexpected shocks were higher. Taheripour et al. [27][37] analysed the medium- and long-term price impacts of the biofuel production of coarse grains (corn), soybeans, rapeseed, and other oilseeds in the USA in the period of 2004–2016 and revealed that the medium- to long-term price impacts of biofuel production were not large. Real crop prices increased between 1.1% and 5.5% in 2004–11 while only one tenth of the price increases was associated with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) [37]. A 20.8% increase in the supply of corn ethanol would cause a 5.3% increase in the price of this commodity [37].

3.2. Biofuel Policies and Their Indirect Effect on Crop Prices

Taheripour et al. [27][37] investigated biofuel policies and their findings include that (i) with no mandate on ethanol, US farmers produced fewer coarse grains (basically corn) by 1.2% and slightly more of other crops; (ii) with no mandates on both ethanol and biodiesel, the outputs of coarse grains, soybeans, rapeseed, and other oilseeds dropped by 1.4%, 1.6%, 12.4%, and 4.3%, respectively, while outputs of all other crop categories grew slightly, and (iii) biofuel production encouraged farmers to shift to produce more coarse grains (corn) and oilseeds.
Nuñez and Trujillo-Barrera [38] studied ethanol mandates—the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)—and emphasised the positive relationship between US ethanol mandates and world crop prices, specifically corn, soybeans, and wheat. One explanation for the observed price fluctuation in corn is that the consumption of corn for biofuel became significant around 2006, when the US federal government began implementing biofuel mandates [39]. The study suggested that mandates were the main cause for the recent increase in biofuel production, and the mandate of 2006 not only impacts current demand but also affects future supply due to its effect on inventories.

3.3. Discussion about the Effects of Biofuels on Crop Prices

Biofuel has been an increasingly concerning issue that affects crop prices. Biofuel policies had indirect effects on crop prices via changes in biofuel production. Biofuel production had both long- and short-term effects on crop prices, but the short-term impacts were greater. A positive relationship between biofuel production and the prices of the crops used to produce biofuel was found in articles. It was evident that biofuel production increased the diversion from food production. The contribution of biofuels to the increases in crop prices was less significant than that of income shock, but might be greater or smaller than those of exchange rate and energy shocks depending on each type of crop. However, there appears to be no causal link between climate change and biofuel production. Climate change could put negative pressure on biofuel use in a zero-carbon economy and that link should be analysed in this scenario.

4. The Effects of Supply Side Factors on Crop Prices

4.1. Historical Price and Supply

Jain et al. [26] included the market arrival quantity of crops in their crop price prediction model for tomatoes and maize in India. Rude and An [32] found that a lower stock-to-use ratio, which estimates final stocks and total use, was associated with tighter markets and increased price variability for wheat, rice, and maize, but not soybean. This relationship also holds for corn, rapeseed, rice, soybean, and wheat [39].

4.2. Energy and Oil Prices

The variability of crude oil prices was one of the crucial factors affecting crop price variability in the studies, with the rise of biofuels enhancing the linkage between oil and agricultural production. Increased crude oil price volatility is likely to increase crop price volatility, as crude oil prices affect crop production inputs and biofuel markets [32].

4.3. Water Supply and Irrigation

Climate change, especially precipitation, can affect water supply/scarcity and thus irrigation demand. Taheripour et al. [27] highlighted that water scarcity was one source of the increase in crop prices and the negative relationship between water supply and crop prices, which is caused by the positive relationship between water supply and yield. It was evident that a 25% decrease in water supply was associated with a 10.3% and 5.7% increase in the producer and consumer price indexes, respectively, when the impacts of climate change on crop prices were not taken into consideration.

4.4. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and Technology

Total factor productivity, which is the ratio of an output to the inputs such as labour and capital, can capture the effects of innovation, technology, and other factors on productivity. Hertel et al. [30] illustrated that the strong historical growth of TFP was associated with the falling trend of crop prices in the 1961–2006 period and predicted that future prices would depend critically on future TFP growth. This could be explained by the close relationship between productivity and agricultural output, which has a negative relationship with crop/food price. The improvement of technology is a key driver of changes in productivity.

4.5. Discussion about the Effects of Supply Side Factors on Crop Prices

There was evidence that a series of supply side factors, notably energy/oil prices, water supply, technology, and stock-to-use ratio, affected crop prices in different directions. All the above-mentioned factors, except technology, had negative effects on crop prices. However, the impacts varied in different crops and depended on each factor. Notably, the contributions of energy shocks to the increase in crop prices were smaller than those of demand-side factors (income and exchange rate shocks). It was found that the works did not discuss water prices or irrigation costs and fertiliser costs, which are crucial input prices for agricultural production. Agricultural crops are seasonal and climate change can have an indirect impact on seasonal water supply, which is associated with changes in yield.

5. The Effects of Demand-Side Factors

5.1. Population

As documented in economic theories, population is one of the determinants of food/crop demand which has a positive relationship with crop price. Hertel et al. [40] documented that global food prices were expected to continue their long-term decline (falling by another 39% from 2006 levels) with an average annual growth of 2.6% in 1961–2006 and 0.8% in 2006–2050 due to the anticipated slowdown in demand growth contributed to by global population stabilisation. According to Hertel et al. [30], population, not income, was the main driver of the historical growth in crop demand which led to the rise in crop prices.

5.2. Income

While population has been the most important demand-side driver of crop prices historically, income growth could be another crucial vehicle and even surpass population, as the population growth rate could be lower in the coming decades [30][40]. Hochman et al. [39] found that income shock contributed 30%, 35%, 30%, and 14% to the price increases in 2007 relative to 2001 of corn, wheat, soybean, and rice, respectively, and emphasised that income shock was the main contributor to increases in wheat prices. This study considered income to be a more significant factor in the increase in crop prices than biofuels, exchange rate, and energy shocks.

5.3. Inflation

Neudert et al. [25] acknowledged the positive relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and crop prices, except that of cassava. Rude and An [27] also included an inflation rate in the model used in their study to calculate the real interest rate by deflating the US Treasury’s 3-month bill using the US CPI inflation rate.

5.4. Exchange Rate

The exchange rate is likely to affect crop prices by changing the demands for crops. Exchange rate shocks contributed 16%, 20%, 11%, and 13% to increases in the prices of corn, wheat, soybean, and rice in 2007 compared to 2001, respectively, but that contribution was less important than that of income and exchange rate shocks [39].

5.5. Discussion about the Effects of Demand-Side Factors on Crop Prices

From the demand-side, population, income, inflation, and exchange rate were documented to have impacts on crop prices at different magnitudes. Population was still a strong driving force for crop prices, with a less significant impact due to a lower population growth rate, while income had a growing impact. The contribution of income to increases in crop prices was found to be more crucial than that of biofuels, exchange rates, and energy shocks. Changes in exchange rates had effects on foreign demand and then agricultural commodity prices. A lower exchange rate or lower value of the domestic currency would promote foreign demand for crops and then increase crop prices. For the current global economy and integration, international influences such as global commodity prices have played a key role in local food prices by affecting both demand and supply, but world crop prices were not considered in publications.

6. Other Factors Affecting Crop Prices

6.1. International Trade and Trade Barriers

Rude and An [32] concluded that export restrictions including export taxes and quantitative restrictions (2011–2016) increased the price volatility of wheat and rice but not of maize and soybean. The contribution of export restrictions to price volatility was the same as key macroeconomic variables.

6.2. Market Participants

One of the key findings of Neudert et al. [25] was a significant relationship between crop prices and market centrality, except in the case of maize, and that the presence of national and international retailers might boost prices in a central market. Sindi [41] highlighted that wealthier farmers were more likely to market their produce through traders and were able to negotiate higher prices due to the quantity they produce, when studying the pigeon pea and groundnut markets.

6.3. Interest Rate

The US Treasury Bill rate had a positive and statistically significant relationship to all four commodities, maize, wheat, rice, and soy, in the USA, according to Rude and An [32]. The relationship was explained by the fact that as the interest rate was considered an opportunity cost for holding stocks and a macroeconomic tool, the crop price may respond to interest rate volatility.

6.4. Discussion about the Effects of Other Factors on Crop Prices

Other factors affecting crop prices include international trade and trade restrictions, market participants, and interest rates. Import flows, which had a positive relationship with trade barriers, had a negative impact on all crop prices in publications. The interest rate of the Treasury Bill in the USA also had a positive effect on crop prices. Participating in a larger market with more buyers and a greater marketing capability was likely to be associated with higher crop prices.

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