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Covid-19 mortality: the Proportionality Hypothesis
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  • Update Date: 21 Sep 2026
  • Covid-19 mortality
  • The Proportionality Hypothesis
  • infection fatality rate
  • all-cause mortality
  • biological frailty
  • relative frailty
  • age
  • deprivation
Video Introduction

This video is adapted from https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-024-00400-9

This video introduces and provides evidence to support the Proportionality Hypothesis which states that Covid-19 infection fatality rates are approximately proportional to all cause death rates by age and subgroup (e.g., socio-economic class). This video also shows that vaccination played a very significant role in preventing people infected with Covid-19 from needing to be hospitalised, since it reduced the average severity of an infection. Death rates involving Covid-19 were very significantly lower for people in the fully vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group. During the pandemic, death rates from other causes were in some cases reduced (e.g., flu and pneumonia), in some cases unchanged (e.g., lung cancer) and in some cases elevated (e.g., heart disease). This video discusses the implications of these findings both for potential adjustments to extrapolative mortality models which allow for future pandemics in a way that is consistent with the Proportionality Hypothesis and for insurance companies in terms of both modelling extreme scenarios and the design of mortality catastrophe bonds.

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Cite
If you have any further questions, please contact Encyclopedia Editorial Office.
Blake, D.; Cairns, A.J.G. Covid-19 mortality: the Proportionality Hypothesis. Encyclopedia. Available online: https://encyclopedia.pub/video/1901 (accessed on 08 October 2026).
Blake D, Cairns AJG. Covid-19 mortality: the Proportionality Hypothesis. Encyclopedia. Available at: https://encyclopedia.pub/video/1901. Accessed October 08, 2026.
Blake, David, Andrew J. G. Cairns. "Covid-19 mortality: the Proportionality Hypothesis" Encyclopedia, https://encyclopedia.pub/video/1901 (accessed October 08, 2026).
Blake, D., & Cairns, A.J.G. (2026, September 21). Covid-19 mortality: the Proportionality Hypothesis. In Encyclopedia. https://encyclopedia.pub/video/1901
Blake, David and Andrew J. G. Cairns. "Covid-19 mortality: the Proportionality Hypothesis." Encyclopedia. Web. 21 September, 2026.
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