Association between weather types (SSC) and all-cause mortality in Sweden: History Edit

Much is known about adverse health impacts of high and low temperatures. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health because it considers the combined effect of meteorological factors rather than temperature only. The aim of this study was to assess the association between oppressive weather types and daily total mortality in Sweden. Time series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between oppressive weather (Dry Polar, Dry Tropical, Moist Polar and Moist Tropical) and daily deaths over 14 days in the extended summer (May to September), and 28 days during the extended winter (November to March), 1991 to 2014. Days not classified as oppressive weather served as the reference category. We computed relative risks with 95% confidence intervals, adjusting for trends and seasonality. Results of the southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations, respectively, were pooled using meta-analysis for regional-level estimates. Analyses were performed using the DLNM and mvmeta packages in R. During summer, in the South, the Moist Tropical and Dry Tropical weather types increased the mortality at Lag0 through Lag3 and Lag6, respectively. Moist polar weather was associated with mortality at longer lags. In the North, Dry Tropical weather increased the mortality at shorter lags. During winter, in the South, Dry Polar and Moist Polar weather increased the mortality from Lag6 to Lag10 and from Lag19 to Lag26, respectively. No effect of oppressive weather was found in the North. The effect of oppressive weather types in Sweden varies across seasons and regions. In the North, a small study sample reduces precision of estimates, while in the South the effect of oppressive weather types is more evident in both seasons.