Educational forecasting is the systematic estimation of future educational conditions—such as enrolment, educational expenditure, completion patterns, staffing needs, and performance trends—through the use of historical data, demographic inputs, and formal analytical models [1][2][3][4]. It refers to forward-looking analysis used in education planning to project how key indicators may evolve under explicit assumptions about population change, participation behavior, policy interventions, and resource allocation [1][2]. Educational forecasting is characterized by model-based projection, scenario construction, and iterative revision as new data become available, so that projected outcomes remain aligned with changing educational and socioeconomic contexts [2][3][4]. In research and policy practice, it denotes a predictive planning process that supports anticipatory decision-making, distinguishing it from descriptive reporting that only summarizes past or current educational statistics [1][2][3][4].
- educational forecasting
- enrolment projection
- education planning
- predictive analytics
Forecasting Techniques and Applications • Management Science and Operations Research • Decision Sciences • Social Sciences
References
- Tetiana Zatonatska; Olena Liashenko; Yana Fareniuk; Łukasz Skowron; Tomasz Wołowiec; Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi; The Impact of Migration on Forecasting Budget Expenditures on Education: The Sustainability Context. Sustain. 2023, 15, 15473, 10.3390/su152115473.
- Panel On a Vision And Roadmap For Education Statistics. A Vision and Roadmap for Education Statistics; The National Academies Press: Washington, DC, United States, 2022. [CrossRef]
- OECD. Education at a Glance 2023; Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD): Paris, France, 2023. [CrossRef]
- Marta Soler-Gallart; Dragana Avramov; Nancy Zoidou Saripapa; Karol Melgarejo; Cristian González López; María Troya Porras; Alba Pistón-Pozo; Esther Oliver; Mimar Ramis-Salas; Javier Díez-Palomar; et al. What Are the Statistics That Improve Education?. Soc. Sci. 2025, 14, 425, 10.3390/socsci14070425.