1. Definition and Context

Sugarcane burning (SCB) is a significant environmental and public health challenge in Thailand, contributing substantially to seasonal PM2.5 air pollution. While fresh sugarcane harvesting is the ideal standard for sustainability, a large portion of the industry relies on pre-harvest burning to remove leaves and trash, making the stalks easier and faster to cut. This practice is not merely a choice by individual farmers but is the result of a "wicked problem"—a complex challenge characterized by contradictory requirements, shifting social values, and deep economic interdependencies. In provinces like Kanchanaburi, the persistence of SCB creates a tension between agricultural productivity, local livelihoods, and the growing national demand for clean air and climate change mitigation.

2. The "Wicked Problem" of Sugarcane Burning

SCB is classified as a wicked problem because solving one aspect of the issue often creates new, unforeseen challenges elsewhere. For instance, while strict bans on burning aim to protect public health, they can inadvertently threaten the economic survival of small-scale farmers who lack the capital to invest in expensive harvesting machinery. Furthermore, the problem involves multiple stakeholders—farmers, sugar millers, government agencies, and urban residents—each with different priorities. To address this, a systems-thinking approach is required to map the underlying feedback loops that drive the industry’s behavior.

3. Systemic Drivers and Feedback Loops

Using a stakeholder-based Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), researchers can identify the reinforcing and balancing loops that maintain the status quo.

• The Labor-Cost Loop: Labor shortages in rural Thailand have driven up the cost of manual fresh-cutting. Burning reduces the labor intensity, creating an economic reinforcing loop where farmers choose burning to maintain profit margins.

• The Machinery Accessibility Gap: While mechanical harvesters offer a solution, high capital costs and the small size of many farm plots create a barrier to adoption.

• The Normalization of Practice: In many farming communities, burning has been normalized over decades, creating a social balancing loop that resists top-down regulatory changes.

4. Unintended Consequences: The Case of "Dirty Harvesting"

A critical finding in recent systems analysis is the emergence of "unintended consequences" from existing policy measures. The Thai government introduced financial incentives, such as the 120 THB per tonne scheme, to reward fresh cane delivery. However, this has led to "dirty harvesting," where farmers deliver fresh cane that still contains significant amounts of soil and leaf residue to meet volume targets quickly. This residue compromises the commercial quality of the sugar and creates inefficiencies at the milling stage, demonstrating how a well-intentioned economic incentive can trigger a negative feedback loop in sugar quality.

5. Policy Leverage Points for Systemic Transition

To achieve a sustainable transition, policies must shift from reactive, short-term measures toward integrated, long-term strategies. Three primary leverage points have been identified:

• Redesigning Incentive Frameworks: Moving toward a multi-dimensional, performance-linked framework. This includes multi-year statutory commitments that provide farmers with the financial certainty needed to invest in sustainable practices.

• Technological and Logistical Support: Utilizing innovation vouchers for shared machinery access and providing logistical guarantees—such as priority milling queues—to reward the delivery of high-quality, fresh sugarcane.

• Valorization of Residues: Facilitating the commercial utilization of sugarcane leaves and trash. By transforming agricultural residue into a value-added commodity (for bio-energy or animal feed), the system creates an inherent economic incentive for non-burning practices.

6. Governance and Civil Society

The ultimate resolution of the SCB challenge requires a fundamental shift in governance. Strengthening farmer organizations allows for better collective bargaining and shared resource management. Furthermore, the role of civil society is crucial in driving the ratification of the Clean Air Act. This legislation serves as the institutional mechanism needed to codify environmental standards and move the industry toward a permanent, structural resolution.

7. Conclusion

Transforming sugarcane farming into a sustainable system requires balancing agricultural livelihoods with public health. By addressing the economic, social, and institutional factors through a systems-thinking lens, Thailand can achieve significant reductions in emissions. This not only improves urban air quality but also contributes to global climate change mitigation, ensuring a resilient future for both the environment and the agricultural economy.