The extraction of ship behavior patterns from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the subsequent prediction of travel routes play crucial roles in mitigating the risk of ship accidents. This study focuses on the Wuhan section of the dendritic river system in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the partial reticulated river system in the northern part of the Zhejiang Province as its primary investigation areas. Considering the structure and attributes of AIS data, we introduce a novel algorithm known as the Combination of DBSCAN and DTW (CDDTW) to identify regional navigation characteristics of ships. Subsequently, we develop a real-time ship trajectory prediction model (RSTPM) to facilitate real-time ship trajectory predictions. Experimental tests on two distinct types of river sections are conducted to assess the model’s reliability. The results indicate that the RSTPM exhibits superior prediction accuracy when compared to conventional trajectory prediction models, achieving an approximate 20 m prediction accuracy for ship trajectories on inland waterways. This showcases the advancements made by this model.
类别 | 方法类别 | 优势 | 弊 |
---|---|---|---|
模拟方法 | 指数平滑模型 (ESM) [2] | 可以使用少量数据进行预测 | 只能进行短期预测 |
曲率速度法 [3] | 模型简单,实时性好 | 只能进行短期预测 | |
统计方法 | 卡尔曼滤波 [4] | 线性、无偏、高精度 | 依赖于原始数据,无法随时间推移进行预测 |
自回归移动平均模型 (ARIMA) [5] | 模型简单,应用广泛 | 需要大量数据且精度低 | |
隐马尔可夫模型 (HMM) [6] | 过程的良好状态预测 | 鲁棒性差,参数设置复杂 | |
高斯混合模型 (GMM) [7] | 短距离预测精度高 | 容易受到数据复杂性和低效性的影响 | |
贝叶斯网络 [8] | 高效且易于培训 | 容易受到先验概率和输入变量的影响 | |
机器学习 | K 最近邻 (KNN) [9] | 易于实施,无需参数估计 | 当样本量不平衡时,准确性会受到影响 |
支持向量机(SVM) [10,11] | 适用于线性和非线性问题 | 仅适用于二分法问题 | |
人工神经网络 (ANN) [12] | 高精度和噪声误差容限 | 需要大量的初始参数和较长的训练时间 | |
极限学习机 (ELM) [13] | 隐藏层无需迭代,快速学习 | 可能导致过拟合问题 | |
反向传播 (BP) [14,15] | 能够自行学习和概括 | 可能会陷入局部极端,导致训练失败 | |
深度学习 | 长短期记忆 (LSTM) [16,17,18,19] | 循环神经网络(RNN)中长期依赖性的不足得到有效改善。 | 内部结构比较复杂,计算起来很耗时 |
格鲁 [20] | 模型简单,训练速度比LSTM快 | 不能完全解决梯度消失问题 | |
甘 [21] | 可以产生更清晰、更逼真的样品 | 不适合处理离散数据,例如文本 | |
卷积神经网络 (CNN) [22] | 可以自动执行特征提取 | 训练结果很容易收敛到局部最小值 | |
深度神经网络 (DNN) [23] | 极佳的非线性拟合能力 | 训练难度大,需要大量数据 | |
其他 | 混合动力车型 [24,25,26,27] | 结合多种机型的优点 | 可能导致计算成本增加 |
This entry is adapted from the peer-reviewed paper 10.3390/ijgi12120502