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Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Kenya, like many other countries, has been affected by the negative impacts of climate change, such as irregular weather patterns and increasing extreme weather events, due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Kenya, which has a population of 50.6 million people and the biggest economy in East Africa, is the centre of the region’s trade, finance, and communications. The nation’s economy is heavily reliant on tourism and agriculture, both prone to climate variability and extreme weather events.
- decarbonization
- GHG emissions
- Kenya
1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Kenya: Trends and Consequences
Kenya’s total greenhouse gas emissions increased from 56.8 MtCO2e in 1995 to 93.7 MtCO2e in 2015 and are projected to increase to 143 MtCO2e by 2030 as the country pursues its Vision 2030 development agenda [3]. In 2015, the leading source of emissions was the agricultural sector, due to enteric fermentation and fertiliser application. Approximately 80% of the land mass is characterized as arid and semi-arid, with the main economic activity being pastoralism [7]. Methane (CH4) is expelled and belched from cattle during the process of “enteric fermentation”, which occurs in the rumination of such animals, as well as during the fermentation of manure [8]. Given the steady rise in the number of cattle, from 17.9 million animals in 2010 to 21.7 million animals in 2020 [9], methane emissions from enteric fermentation and manure decomposition are on the rise.
Projections of greenhouse gas emissions show that by 2030, energy will be the leading contributor due to the increased consumption of fossil fuels in meeting domestic, commercial, and industrial heating demands, as well as transportation [3]. More than 14% of the world’s primary energy comes from biomass, primarily fuel wood and charcoal, which is essential for satisfying the energy needs of emerging nations, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa [10]. A total of 90% of Kenya’s rural homes use firewood for cooking and heating and 80% depend on charcoal to meet their cooking demands [11]. The combustion of residential cooking fuels contributes 13.6 MtCO2e per year of greenhouse gas emissions from both urban and rural populations [12].
Forests, including closed forests, woodlands, shrub areas, grasslands, farmlands, and plantations, as well as agricultural and industrial waste, are the primary sources of biomass energy. When charcoal is not produced through reforestation schemes, it can cause forest loss and deforestation, given that an over-extraction of biomass materials from natural forests can undermine their resilience. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the usage of unsustainable charcoal has been very detrimental to ecosystems [13]. Growth in the rural and urban population, unemployment, and land tenure are major factors in woodland degradation and deforestation; therefore, any intervention should carefully consider these factors to manage forest resources effectively and sustainably [10].
In addition to the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector, the transport sector is a significant source of GHG emissions. Globally, the transport sector contributes about 39% of the total GHG emissions produced through the operation of vehicles, motorbikes, trains, and aeroplanes [14]. Rapid urbanization with increased motorization and fragmented public transport systems in major cities has led to increased emissions, especially during heavy traffic along various roads. In 2019, emissions from the domestic transport sector amounted to 12.343 MtCO2e, an increase of 4.6 million tonnes compared to 2010 [15], putting the sector off its 2030 target of not more than 0.4 MtCO2e per year on average [16]. By 2030, it is estimated that the transport sector will account for 17% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions [4].
Although Kenya’s share of global GHG emissions is comparatively small, the country’s population is rising rapidly, and its economy strengthening, which might lead to a significant increase in GHG levels over time and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the economy is dependent on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture, water, energy, tourism, wildlife, and health, whose vulnerability is accentuated by climate change, as explained in the updated NDC [3]. Conflicts in Kenya, largely related to natural resources, are exacerbated by increased intensities and magnitudes of climate-related threats [17]. These effects are not gender-neutral, having varying impacts on men and women and other marginalized groups [18]. Consequently, the nation has frequently been obliged to reassign development funds to deal with climate-related problems [19]. Cumulative climate change consequences impede development efforts and cause socio-economic losses estimated at 3–4% of GDP yearly [3]. As a result, the Kenyan government has established ambitious action plans for climate change adaptation and mitigation [3,4].
2. Carbon Emission Mitigation Efforts in Kenya
A total of 194 out of 197 nations, including Kenya, have ratified the Paris Agreement on Climate Change as of February 2023, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels [20]. However, the global mean surface temperatures have already increased by 1.1 °C [21]. If this trend continues, it will increase well beyond 1.5 °C, to levels that will endanger the lives and livelihoods of people worldwide [22]. For this reason, an increasing number of nations are pledging to attain “net−zero” emissions, or carbon neutrality, within the next several decades. The term “net−zero” means balancing the carbon emitted into the atmosphere and the carbon removed from it. This balance—or net−zero—happens when the amount of carbon we add to the atmosphere is equivalent to the amount removed. To reach net−zero, emissions from homes, transport, agriculture, and industry must be cut drastically. However, some areas of the economy, such as aviation, shipping, cement, iron and steel, and variable electricity, are hard to fully decarbonize [23]. These ‘residual’ emissions can be removed from the atmosphere either by changing how we use our land so it can absorb more carbon dioxide or by being extracted directly through technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). It is, therefore, clear that bold actions and significant contributions are required to achieve carbon neutrality [24].
Kenya has adopted a policy to direct national and subnational climate actions, making the country a leader in Sub-Saharan Africa in tracking climate change. Sustainable development that is low in carbon emissions and climate-resilient is guided by the Climate Change Act [25] and the National Climate Change Policy Framework [4]. On the 28th of December 2016, Kenya filled its first Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), in which the mitigation effort aimed to cut GHG emissions by 30% by 2030 [26]. Kenya revised this goal in its updated NDC, in 2020, to cut GHG emissions by 32% by 2030 [3]. The National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) states that a critical component of the program is creating a dependable and climate-resilient energy system [4]. These policy documents outline the ambitious goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation, which include reforestation and afforestation, climate-smart agriculture, the development of geothermal and clean energy sources, energy efficiency, and drought management.
2.1. Energy Sector Initiatives
A substantial commercialization of the biomass energy sub-sector holds the most promise for reducing the high, and rising, level of over 57% biomass energy supply deficit [10]. This could provide energy for the nation, create jobs, and offer ecosystem services. The suggested methods include (a) large-scale corporate biomass energy productions in designated areas where land is not a significant constraint; (b) small-scale farmers producing charcoal and fuelwood as cash crops modelled after the tea industry; (c) the sustainable management of naturally growing forests guided by approved management plans; (d) making investments in residual biomass, after soil fertility has been addressed; (e) expanding the production of energy-efficient stoves, kilns, and biogas appliances [10].
Other than the use of biomass, the energy sector has also invested in different renewable sources for electric power generation, which include the use of geothermal, hydropower, wind, and solar energy. As of 2021, 46.69% of electricity generation stemmed from geothermal, 32.22% from hydropower, 0.8% from solar, and 11.2% from wind power plants, with the following two main plants: Ngong Hills Wind Farm, located in Ngong, Kajiado County, and Lake Turkana Wind Power Station, in Turkana County [5]. These low-carbon and low-pollutant energy sources have helped to reduce carbon emissions.
2.2. Agriculture Sector Initiatives
Kenya has invested in numerous activities that have contributed to curb carbon emissions in other sectors of the economy. For the agricultural sector, two projects have been developed. First, the Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture Framework Program (KCSA-FP) aims to reduce 30% of the carbon emissions from the agricultural sector by 2030, by guiding investments into climate-resilient and low-carbon agriculture [27]. Second, the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), developed by the dairy sector’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) concept, aims to increase cattle productivity while reducing carbon emissions by improving cattle feeds and disease control, making solar-powered equipment for processing dairy products and creating manure-fed biogas systems in households [28]. A study assessing the adoption of rangeland enclosures (fenced areas) instead of extensive open systems in Kenya, for example, demonstrated significant reductions in GHG emissions under a lifecycle assessment through the enhancement of the biomass production and restoration of degraded soils. [29].
2.3. Transport Sector Initiatives
To minimize CO2 emissions from traffic, the country has constructed roads with improved traffic flow in Nairobi, such as the Thika Superhighway and the Nairobi Expressway. Moreover, due to the increase in motorists in the country over the years, the Transport Climate Strategies (TraCSs) project was initiated to incorporate climate change policies in the transport sector, thereby supporting the reduction of GHG emissions [30].
There are also plans to encourage non-motorized transportation, such as infrastructural improvements to walking paths and cycle tracks funded by several World Bank projects [31].
Kenya plans to mitigate emissions from the aviation sector by airport improvements and adopting sustainable aviation operations through initiatives which are to be implemented from 2022 to 2028 [32]. These initiatives include upgrading its international and domestic aircraft fleet to more modern aircraft, adopting a biofuel mix in aviation fuelling, piloting projects using sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and implementing fuel-efficient flight paths with continuous climb and descent operations. These projects have helped reduce GHG emissions but have not curbed them, thus requiring further projects to be developed and implemented, such as the adoption of small hybrid and electric aircrafts.
This entry is adapted from the peer-reviewed paper 10.3390/en16217459
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