Pakistan is situated between latitude 30° N and longitude 69° E. The total land area of the country is approximately 76 thousand km². The administrative units comprise four provinces (Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Baluchistan), one capital federal territory (Islamabad), and two autonomous territories (Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

The diversity of Pakistan extends to its climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic characteristics, which change from region to region. A proportion of 38% of the total land area of the country is arable; major crops grown include rice, wheat, cotton, sugar cane, and maize, as well as a rich diversity of fruits. Pakistan is the world’s fifth-most populous country, with a population of 203 million. According to the first census conducted in 1951, the official population of the country was 32.7 million. During the last four decades, the population of the country has increased at an average growth rate of 2.57%. At present, 36.44% of the population resides in urban areas. The population growth of Pakistan is considered to have slowed in recent years (2.4% average annual growth rate for the period of 1998–2018).

Energy is an essential commodity of modern-day economies. The technologies involved in its production and consumption have, therefore, attained increasing importance. The provision of a clean, affordable, and reliable supply of energy in various forms is deeply intertwined with sustainable development and energy security. However, such ambition could only be achieved with a maximum of renewable energy in the overall energy mix. In the meantime, the growth of energy demand is exponentially increasing, encouraging energy planners and policy makers to address this challenge. It was reported that the global primary energy supply increased by 66% from 1990 to 2019, whereas electricity consumption surged to approximately 130% during the same period ^[1][3]. However, much of this energy demand is fulfilled using fossil fuels, which are key contributors to greenhouse gases (GHGs), which cause climate change. Oil and coal are the leading fossil fuels, representing a share of approximately 57% of the global energy supply ^[1][3]. The United Nations Secretary General reported a chronicle of climate chaos, outlining the effects of worsening heat waves, melting ice, and torrential rains around the world in his opening remarks at the COP27 climate summit. He also reported that Earth is fast approaching tipping points that would make climate chaos irreversible ^[2][4]. Apocalyptic floods in Pakistan, extreme heatwaves from Europe to China, the devastations caused in Belize by storm Lisa, and torrential floods in St. Lucia require climate-resilient global policies. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to consider renewables such as wind, solar, biomass, and small hydro generation to meet the ever-increasing demand. In this context, over the past decade, growth in renewable energy conversion technologies has increased the penetration of these resources. However, the improved share of renewables for power generation and other uses is not at par with the growth in the demand and is insufficient in developing economies. Therefore, it is challenging for developing countries to meet the increasing energy demand and ensure energy security.

The energy security of Pakistan is at the mercy of imported fossil fuels. Pakistan relies mainly on oil and gas to meet its energy demand.

It is evident from the above illustrations that indigenous energy availability is limited; therefore, the county must rely on imports. The share of different sources in primary commercial energy supply in the period from 2013–2014 to 2018–2019 has varied substantially. In 2013–2014, the oil share in the overall energy mix was 34.4%, which was reduced to 25.7% in 2018–2019. It is pertinent to note that the share of gas was also reduced from 46.3% in 2013–2014 to 35% in 2018–2019. However, the share of coal increased from 5.4% in 2013–2014 to 15.4% in 2018–2019. Another key variation in the overall share of the energy mix is related to hydro and nuclear resources, the share of which was reduced from 13.3% in 2013–2014 to 10.7% in 2018–2019. On the positive side, in 2018–2019, the overall energy mix included a renewable energy share of 1.3%, which minimal but expected to increase.

Indigenous oil and gas resources are limited, and the country is heavily dependent on oil and gas imports. Given the present production rate, indigenous recoverable oil and gas reserves may be exhausted after 12 and 13 years, respectively. In the meantime, there is considerable potential of coal (185 billion tons) in the country; however, this resource has not been effectively employed due to somewhat inferior quality, economic restrictions, the site of the resources, and a lack of expertise and convenience in modern coal conversion technologies. Approximately 85% of Pakistan’s oil demand is fulfilled by imports, with an expenditure of approximately USD 14.7 billion per annum ^[3][9]. The import of oil is a serious stress on the economy and has worsened economic conditions. The country’s energy demand is predicted to grow rapidly with economic growth, and it has been forecasted that the demand for primary commercial energy could increase at a rate of 4.3, 7.3, or 10.4% per annum depending on the situation. Therefore, the government of Pakistan (GOP) has planned to bridge the energy demand–supply gap by considering various alternative options. The options for import of regional gas have been controlled by the delicate local security situation, technical matters, and complications related to profitability and working measures, which are challenging in typical large-scale projects demanding intercountry contracts.

The country also suffers from an economic impediment known as circular debt. This issue in the energy sector has largely remained uncontrolled, even with unrelenting efforts of different governments. The reported debt of PKR 450 billion in 2013 had increased to PKR 2.3 trillion as of 31 December 2020, which is equivalent to 5.6% of the country’s total GDP. The key reasons for circular debt in Pakistan are (i) the high cost of power generation affecting collection efficiency; (ii) pitfalls and delays in tariff determinations; (iii) high transmission losses, power theft, corruption, and revenue collection problems; (iv) government subsidies; and (v) high financial costs of government borrowing and expensive late-payment penalties on payables.

The resolution of Pakistan’s energy crises could be essentially achieved with effective energy planning by considering optimal diffusion of renewable energy resources and improving governance. This approach could help to overcome oil import expenses, contain climate change, and ensure energy security in the long run. If the country’s energy crises are not tackled at both operating and strategic levels in the immediate future, Pakistan’s energy crisis might become a national security threat.

Energy plays a key role in the economic development of any nation and is one of the most important commodities for humans. However, Pakistan is confronting severe crises of energy in the form of electricity and fuel in all major sectors. Energy crises have resulted in the shutting down of a number of industries and factories, paralyzing production and worsening redundancy. The main causes the energy crises are increasing demand, planning, and governance.

Pakistan’s indigenous fossil fuel reserves (oil and gas) are limited and rapidly depleting. The progress in identifying new reserves of oil and gas, harnessing indigenous coal reserves, and utilization of renewable energies is extremely slow. The institutional structure of the energy sector has been shaky over the years, and until the emergence of industry and transport, the energy sector was principally considered to be an electricity system. Following the establishment of the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) in 1958, various large and small dams were developed. Under the WAPDA, various power projects were developed based on hydro and fossil fuel resources; as such, all primary energy sources were mainly dedicated to power generation.

The concept of an integrated energy system could not evolve and attain any importance until the growth in other economic sectors in 1980s. As such, no formal energy policy was announced by the government until 1994. The energy policies declared then lacked an integrated energy and planning approach, did not consider renewable energy resources, and remained contradictory, resulting in issues associated with their implementation.

The energy and power sector of Pakistan has had been subject to various reorganization and reforming phases from time to time. The restructuring of this sector commenced in 1990s with the ultimate aim of autonomy and privatization but still undergoing various trials. In its current form, Pakistan’s energy sector under the Ministry of Energy (MoE) mainly comprises two divisions, namely the Petroleum and Power Divisions, with relevant roles and responsibilities.

Other than the MoE, the Ministry of Finance; the Ministry of Science and Technology; the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms; the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), power sector regulator NEPRA; and various multinationals, as well as IPPs, are key players in the energy sector. However, these organizations only undertake energy and power-planning-related activities, and electricity-related work undertaken by the NTDC. At the national level, only a few integrated energy and power planning efforts, without renewable energy as a focus, have been reported, which are briefly discussed in the following section.

The development in the energy sector to meet demand with limited resources was gradual following independence in 1947. Pakistan inherited only 60 MW of installed capacity for electricity. At the outset, the energy sector made some progress, but this did not last long. The dilemma of ever-increasing energy demand and fuel crises has rendered Pakistan in a constant state of energy crises; most of the population has no or limited access to electricity, with only expensive transport fuel available ^[4][12].

The first-ever water- and power-focused organization, WAPDA, was established in 1958 and proposed a five-year planning paradigm conceived through the Ministry of Finance and formally endorsed by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC). However, only limited studies have been carried out domestically by the government with respect to the water and power sectors over the decades.

These limited government-level energy planning/modeling efforts were often technically and financially supported by international organizations with their vested interests.

The methodologies of these studies were generally based on statistical or survey tools, with limited attention on forecasting energy demand of other sectors, renewable energy assessment, technologies for different end uses, and modeling of optimal renewable energy penetration in the energy mix of Pakistan.

A strategic policy outline based on rational planning efforts lays the foundation for economic prosperity. Pakistan is a developing country with an extremely fragile economy; as such, effective energy policy endeavors could play a significantly important role in the overall development and well-being of its population. However, in the recent past, Pakistan has not had a single energy policy document, with policy instead spread across sub-policies. Many policy documents have been introduced concurrently, such as a petroleum exploration policy, natural gas allocation and management policy, a national energy conservation policy, power policy, the recently proposed alternative and renewable energy policy, and the national electric vehicle policy. Debate continued about merging relevant policies into a single energy policy document, but due to multidepartmental concerns and a lack of coordination, a single integrated energy policy document has not been realized to date.

These energy policies were devised with specific goals and objectives for each regime, and some serious efforts were also undertaken for their implementation. However, the majority of these policies were undertaken without considering the conformist energy planning efforts based on energy modeling. In addition, some of these policies lacked an effective implementation framework. It is also pertinent to note that only two energy polices (RE Policy 2006 and ARE Policy 2019) emphasized the use of renewable energy resources, although they lacked a formidable energy modeling basis. Therefore, it is very important that new energy policies based on integrated energy modeling and planning efforts considering renewable energy resources be devised. These future policies should also consider past experience, focusing on the depletion of indigenous fossil fuel resources and addressing the environmental concerns and affordability.

The assessment of energy resources in a country or region requires an imperative approach including forecasting of energy demand and production. In this context, a limited number of relevant studies for Pakistan are reported in the literature, with certain details and limitations. A review of such studies with respect to Pakistan and other relevant studies follows below.

In its first attempt, in 2014, AEDB, in collaboration with the World Bank, implemented a renewable energy mapping project for Pakistan based on satellite and ground-based data. In this regard, wind masts with a height of 80 m were installed in 12 locations across the country to collect ground-based wind data. Similarly, nine weather stations, of which two were tier 1 and seven were tier 2 were also installed across the country to collect ground-based solar energy data. These highly accurate ground-based data were used to produce solar and wind atlases for Pakistan.

It can be seen from these figures that Pakistan has good potential for both solar and wind energy in various locations across the country.

The biomass component of the AEDB and World Bank project covered the four provinces of the country and helped to quantify the available biomass and agricultural waste for energy production. This survey suggested that in 44 districts of the country, the biomass potential is substantial for electricity generation.

It is estimated that that Pakistan has the technical potential for approximately 101 Twh/year of electricity generation from biomass and waste.

In its first 50 years of independence, Pakistan somewhat effectively utilized its hydropower potential by developing major dams and erecting power stations. However, in subsequent years, the growth of hydropower has been marred by sociopolitical controversies, a lack of consensus among federating units, and the lack of availability of investors to finance such projects.

In addition to the above estimates of renewable energy published by reputed local and international organizations for various regions and countries, the contemporary literature also provides some insight into these estimates, and renewable energy potential assessment has been undertaken.

The diffusion of renewable energy resources is progressing as active research and governmental policy on renewable energy attempts to adapt and develop these resources in the country. However, the literature suggests that there is considerable potential for renewable energy sources in Pakistan, which has yet to be systematically investigated. Proper utilization of these indigenous resources may replace expensive fossil fuels for power generation, transport, and energy requirements for cooking and heating.

Limited work has been done on the assessment of the renewable energy potential of Pakistan. Only resource potential has been identified/assessed to date. However, it is important for a developing country such as Pakistan that such potential should be estimated according to possible applications (i.e., power generation, cooking, heating, energy processing, pumping, transport fuel, etc.) to effectively model renewable energy resources for optimal utilization.