Ecological Environment in Belt and Road Initiative Regions: Comparison
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Please note this is a comparison between Version 2 by Conner Chen and Version 1 by Xixi Du.

With the widespread recognition and in-depth implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), especially in the context of global climate change, the ecological environment of Belt and Road Initiative regions might be confronted with pressures and challenges with rapid socioeconomic development. In response to those potential environmental challenges, China has put forward Green BRI and enriched the new Silk Road with more environmental connotations, aiming to reduce the conflict between economic development and eco-environmental protection.

  • the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
  • ecological environment
  • eco-environmental protection

1. Overall Ecological Environmental Patterns

The Belt and Road region traverses Eurasia, Africa, Oceania, South America, North America and the Caribbean and spans subtropical, temperate, cold temperate and frigid zones, with complex terrain and geological conditions. There are many ecologically sensitive areas, including biodiversity hotspots and protected areas. Among them, Southeast Asia, the most biodiverse region in the world, boasts a large number of protected areas and biodiversity hotspots [30][1]. With ASEAN countries partnering with China to enhance regional economic growth and promote close trade with China, Southeast Asia is increasingly becoming a hotspot for infrastructure development under Belt and RIoad Initiative (BRI). BRI-related infrastructure traverses through Southeast Asia via various transportation corridors, which could pose detrimental challenges to the eco-environment of the region. Since the implementation of the BRI, a total of 21 terrestrial protected areas, accounting for 4% of 472 protected areas, in mainland Southeast Asia have been directly bisected by the BRI routes which traversed through 210 km of terrestrial protected habitat. Meanwhile, a total of 20 marine protected areas and 16 marine key biodiversity hotspots in insular Southeast Asia have been potentially affected within 50 km of the BRI’s marine route [31][2].
Over 60% of the Belt and Road region areas are arid and semi-arid grassland, desert and high-altitude ecologically fragile areas with a dry climate and low precipitation [27][3], having a strong vulnerability and relatively low adaptive capacity to climate change, natural disasters and human activities [32,33][4][5]. The total water resources in Belt and Road region are only 36% of the global total, with an uneven distribution, posing higher pressure on water security compared with the world average level [27][3]. The highest water resources per capita among the Belt and Road region were found in South and Central America, with an average of 39,901 m3·yr−1 compared with the lowest of 340 m3·yr−1 in North Africa [34][6].
Due to rare precipitation and intensive evaporation, the region from northwest China to Western Asia and North Africa is confronted with severe water shortages [35][7]. Additionally, there are seasonal variations in drought among the Belt and Road region, with the area of winter drought larger than that of summer drought [36][8]. Owing to the fragile natural environment and frequency of disasters, the Belt and Road regions are vulnerable to climate extremes and natural disasters, including floods, droughts, landslides, wildfires, tsunamis, typhoons, heat waves, convective storms, cold temperatures and earthquakes, which inflict severe damage on society, economy, ecosystems and local residents’ daily lives at global and regional scales [32[4][9][10][11][12][13][14][15],37,38,39,40,41,42,43], and the frequency, duration and intensity of these are likely to increase continuously [44][16].
The area of the Maritime Silk Road, subject to the tropical monsoon climate, is one of the areas with the most frequent marine and meteorological disasters, such as typhoons, storm surges, severe waves and tsunamis [42][14]. The regions affected by storm surges are mainly distributed in East Asia, Western Europe and northern Australia. In addition, the sources of major tsunamis are the several large tectonic faults on the Maritime Silk Road, most of which are located in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the northeastern Indian Ocean, making tsunami events mainly distributed in the South China Sea, the eastern Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean coast [37,42][9][14]. Meanwhile, human activities, such as rapid urbanization, often result in abrupt land-use changes that lead to eco-environment degradation, including vegetation reductions, increased coastal erosion and reduced ecosystem diversity [47][17]. Given that the Belt and Road regions are mainly ecologically fragile areas with complicated, diverse and vulnerable eco-environmental conditions [48][18], the eco-environmental issues along the BRI regions are worthy of in-depth study for the future formulation of countermeasures and eco-environmental protection strategies. However, the existing literature predominantly centers on Eurasia and Africa, and it has not been extended to the expanded areas of the BRI, such as Oceania, South America, North America and the Caribbean. In the future, the scope of research should be further extended to enrich systematic and integrated research on the eco-environment of the BRI regions.

2. Vegetation Coverage Conditions

Terrestrial vegetation enacts an important role in ecosystems, such as mitigating global warming, preventing soil erosion and alleviating city heat islands [47,49,50][17][19][20]. Coastal vegetation, including mangroves, salt marshes, macroalgae, seagrasses, coastal strands and dunes, also buffer shores and retain sediments from tides, waves and storms [47][17]. However, the vegetation coverage in the Belt and Road region has experienced a significant change in recent years. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of the whole region revealed a slow decrease during 1982–2015, with decreased vegetation NDVI mainly distributed in northern Russia, Central Asia (the coast of the Black Sea, Caspian Sea and Aral Sea), Southeast Asia, the Malay Islands and northeast China, of which, the magnitude of the decrease in the north of Russia is particularly remarkable. Additionally, several areas witnessed an increase in vegetation NDVI, mainly concentrating in East Asia, Europe and China [33][5].
From 1981 to 2016, especially after 2005, vegetation trend shifts existed in Belt and Road region. The greening to browning shifts were the most common category, accounting for 23.23% of the vegetated area, primarily in eastern Europe and Central Asia, with warmer temperatures, droughts, land abandonments and agriculture expansions as the main causes [51,52,53][21][22][23]. Additionally, economic development and trade activities brought by the BRI are some of the main driving forces behind land use and land cover changes (LUCC), which affect the vegetation coverage. For instance, the impact of export trade under BRI on LUCC in Central Asia before and after the implementation of BRI were evaluated, the results of which showed that agricultural land and construction land increased by 59,120 km2 and 7617 km2, respectively, while ecological land decreased by 66,737 km2 before and after the BRI (2001–2020). Overall, the development of trade under BRI may affect the changes in ecological land and reduced vegetation coverage in Central Asia [54][24].
Most of the countries in the Belt and Road region are developing countries in semiarid and arid areas with relatively lower income levels, high rural poverty and heavy environmental threats, making its vegetation highly sensitive to climate change and anthropogenic activities over multiple timescales [52,55,56,57][22][25][26][27]. Climate change dominates the overall vegetation coverage change in Belt and Road region, with warmer temperatures and droughts the likely main causes of the greening to browning shifts [52,58][22][28]. Moreover, anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, agricultural cultivation, and unplanned urbanization have dramatically changed vegetation at short time scales [57][27]. There is a substantial body of scholarly research focusing on vegetation change and its driving factors in the field of vegetation coverage in BRI regions; however, the literature on ecological restoration in vegetation loss areas is surprisingly scant. Accordingly, how to propose countermeasures to the factors causing vegetation degradation under the framework of the BRI and restore vegetation deserves to be intensively studied.

3. Climate Change Effects

Due to the complex climatic conditions, countries along the Belt and Road have experienced increasingly severe climatic extremes in recent years and are sensitive and vulnerable to climate change [28,59,60,61,62][29][30][31][32][33]. With its fragile ecosystem, poor infrastructure, relatively low income and high vulnerability to climate change, the Belt and Road region has experienced accelerated warming at roughly twice the rate of the global land [61,63][32][34]. In the context of climate change, rising temperatures have further exacerbated water stress in the Belt and Road region by increasing surface evapotranspiration and stimulating considerable glacial retreat, especially in Central and West Asian countries, which are currently facing water shortage problems [34,55,60,61,64][6][25][31][32][35]. Furthermore, climate change might make future water resources more unevenly distributed among the Belt and Road region [34][6].
With increased temperature, intensified water stress and changes in precipitation patterns, drought in the Belt and Road region has become more severe, leading to global desertification [61][32]. Potential changes in the usage of limited water resources may further increase the risk of desertification and deepen the area’s ecological poverty [64][35]. From 1986 to 2005, the annual aridity index in the Belt and Road region was approximately 1.58 [59][30]. The increased temperature might result in persistent drought intensification. With the effects of global warming, under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario, the aridity index in Central-Eastern Europe, north of West Asia, south of East Asia and northwest of Southeast Asia will rise rapidly at a rate of over 5% compared to 1986–2005, and under a global warming scenario of 2.0 °C, the aridity index in the same regions will further grow by 15% [59][30]. Additionally, the intensification of drought stress caused by rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation seriously leads to prominent vegetation browning in the Belt and Road region, especially in Central Asia [61][32].
Countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and the natural extension region of the Maritime Silk Road will witness a significant sea level rise [28][29]. Central Asia and South Europe are suffering from record extreme weather and climate events, which have resulted in huge economic losses and casualties. Southeast Asia, North Asia and South Asia are experiencing heavy precipitation events and extreme heat waves [28,40][12][29]. As for the future effects of climate change, it is predicted that Nairobi, the capital of Kenya (in East Africa), will experience the greatest increase in annual mean precipitation. Meanwhile, precipitation-related extreme events, such as drought and flooding events, are predicted to be intensified in Belt regions due to future extreme climate changes, particularly over West Asia and Southeast Asia [32][4].
As for the driving forces behind climate warming, CO2 emissions play an important role in accelerating climate warming [65][36]. Therefore, there are many studies using CO2 emissions as a proxy variable to estimate the impact of the BRI on the eco-environment under climate warming scenarios. Nevertheless, the results produced in those studies were inconsistent and even contradictory. For instance, regarding the effect of trade openness and foreign direct investment (FDI) on CO2 emissions, some researchers indicated that trade openness and FDI between China and the BRI countries significantly reduce CO2 emissions [66[37][38][39],67,68], whereas other researchers demonstrated that trade openness and FDI are significant contributors to CO2 emission in the BRI countries [26,69][40][41]. Still, some researchers showed that the BRI countries’ imports from China significantly reduce CO2 emissions in these countries and exports to China tend to promote CO2 emissions [67,70][38][42]. Other scholars classified the BRI countries according to their income levels, exploring the impact of imports and exports on CO2 emissions in different categorized BRI countries [26][40]. Results have shown that imports increased CO2 emissions in low-income countries while decreasing them in middle- and high-income countries, and exports decreased CO2 emissions in low- and high-income countries while increasing them in lower-middle countries. In a word, to evaluate the impact of the BRI on the eco-environment accurately, studies on the mechanisms for grouping BRI countries need to be carried out, so as to conduct more targeted research on the CO2 emissions solutions for each country along the BRI routes. Meanwhile, previous research only presents what happened in the past and predicts that those trends will continue in the long run. Future research may adopt a more dynamic view via scenario development and modeling.

4. Natural Resources Conditions

Natural resources are the foundation of human development, and the supply-consumption relationship of natural resources reflects the most basic impact of human activities on the ecosystem [12,71][43][44]. The BRI participating countries, with petroleum exporting and emerging economies in the list, are the major suppliers of natural resources and manufacturers of commodities [63][34], which boast abundant natural resources, including water resources, mineral resources, fossil energy (such as coal, crude oil and natural gas), and forest resources [72,73,74][45][46][47]. 
On the whole, the environmental opportunities for resource endowment in northern and southern regions are higher than in the middle region in the Belt and Road region [73][46]. Middle Eastern, North African and Central Asian countries are rich in mineral resources and energy, such as oil and natural gas, but are short of water and forest resources [73,75][46][48]. The Middle East and West Asia are the world’s largest oil reserve regions with the highest amount of oil produced and exported [74][47]. However, water resources there are extremely scarce, which presents a striking contrast to the richness of the oil. Central Asia is rich in mineral resources and fossil energy, especially Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, the northwestern part of Central Asia struggles with infrequent rains, poor soils and a lack of vegetation cover [73][46]. With the similar natural endowment condition, Africa is also rich in mineral resources but short of water resources, facing problems in the areas of water environmental protection and water supply security [47,78,79][17][49][50]. By contrast, Southeast Asia, with abundant water, forest, and mineral resources, has the most notable natural resource endowment [73][46]. Different countries boast their own abundant types of resources with different resource endowments. Nonetheless, few scholars have addressed the issue of resource complementarity and supply demand relationship among BRI regions. Therefore, making full use of the BRI’s platform advantages to avoid overexploitation of resources in a certain region and achieve resource complementarity via multilateral cooperation for different BRI-involved regions will provide a new angle for BRI resource research.
The total water resource distribution of the Belt and Road region is rich in the east and poor in the west, showing regional differences, with an imbalance of water resources exacerbating in this region [80,81][51][52]. Russia has the most abundant water resources, reaching 4525 billion m3, accounting for 23.09% of the total water resources of the Belt and Road region. The total water resources of China, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia and other countries all exceed 1 trillion m3, which is at a relatively abundant level. With relatively scarce water resources, the total water resources of countries in West Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East are generally less than 100 billion m3 [81][52]. Meanwhile, water for industrial and agricultural production accounts for the vast majority of water usage, water utilization efficiency of which has a significant impact on water resource utilization [78,82][49][53]. Uneven distribution of water resources, large utilization of water resources and low utilization efficiency will lead to serious water shortage and stress in the Belt and Road region [78,82,83][49][53][54]. Most countries in Belt and Road region are experiencing different degrees of water scarcity, with Central Asia being particularly prominent [83,84,85][54][55][56]. The BRI-related countries are all facing water crises but with different priorities. Therefore, when implementing cooperation projects under the framework of BRI, attention should be paid to the water shortage in West Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East, cooperation programs should be designed according to the water consumption situation in different regions, so as to improve the efficiency of local water resources utilization and ensure local water security.
Mineral resources are an essential material basis for socioeconomic development, and almost all industrial sectors have a connection with the consumption of mineral resources [86][57]. Rich in mineral resources, the BRI-related countries are a globally important supply base of resources, where mineral resource exploitation plays an irreplaceable role in their socioeconomic development [76][58]. In those countries with a high proportion of fossil energy, the problem of energy waste is severe and the total-factor energy efficiency (TFEE) varies from each other [87][59].
In the future, improving energy management and technology utilization levels should be focused on reducing energy waste and improving resource utilization efficiency under the cooperation framework of BRI. Moreover, the overexploitation and overconsumption of mineral resources and the deposition of mining waste will lead to various secondary eco-environmental problems, such as vegetation degradation, land occupation, ground subsidence, and biodiversity loss, which will pose challenges to the regional eco-environment [86][57].
Natural resources are considered to be the essential elements of socioeconomic development. However, the overexploitation of natural resources in agricultural production, mining and deforestation may create eco-environmental issues [88][60]. Consequently, the usage of natural resources should be controlled, resource productivity and utilization efficiency should be improved and overexploitation and overconsumption should be avoided in the BRI regions.

5. The Role of BRI in the Context of the Ecological Environment

Since the implementation of the BRI, China’s cooperation with BRI participating countries has been growing rapidly. Due to the large-scale projects of BRI, BRI is a potential contributor to eco-environmental challenges for participating countries [89][61]. In the early stage of the implementation of the BRI, infrastructure development, trade and investments under the BRI and their impacts may be the key drivers of eco-environmental risks [90,91,92][62][63][64]. Infrastructure project implementation, such as the construction of roads, railway, pipelines and seaports, has affected several terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots, wilderness areas and other key protected areas, contributing to biodiversity loss and vegetation loss, due to habitat degradation, fragmentation and illegal activities such as poaching and logging [29,31,93,94][2][65][66][67]. Meanwhile, the BRI may drive water and soil pollution, as well as climate change, due to the Chinese investments in some energy exploitation projects and construction and maintenance of transportation infrastructures [89,90,95][61][62][68]. It may also accelerate the overexploitation of natural resources, such as water, energy and mineral resources in BRI participating countries, bringing eco-environmental challenges [96][69].
Faced with the potential negative impacts on the eco-environment, China has emphasized the importance of implementing the concept of green development into the implementation of the BRI [97][70]. Given that most BRI participating countries are developing countries with relevant low-income levels, they are confronted with sharp contradictions between socioeconomic development and eco-environmental protection. Therefore, it is necessary for China and BRI-related countries to strengthen cooperation and take the path of green development under the framework of BRI [97][70]. In response, in 2017, China came up with an improved version of the BRI, the “Greening BRI”, aiming to support the BRI’s green development, achieve the Paris Agreement and promote the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [89,98][61][71]. The Green BRI aims to promote green infrastructure, green investment and green finance, which have become the common needs of BRI-related countries and China to realize green development [99,100][72][73].
To reduce environmental deterioration and improve environmental quality, a great number of infrastructure projects with high environmental protection standards under the Green BRI have been introduced, decreasing the discharging of pollutants and making the eco-environment less prone to degradation [101][74]. Based on previous studies, the Green BRI could improve the environmental quality of BRI-participating countries by boosting their technological progress, tightening their environmental regulation, increasing the proportion of green energy consumption, promoting clean energy, upgrading industrial structures as well as investing in new energy projects rather than traditional oil and gas projects [89,99,102][61][72][75]. Green BRI is proven to be a feasible plan to support green and low-carbon development, guarantee biodiversity as well as address climate change, thus protecting the eco-environment [90][62]. With the growing global agenda on green development and the recognition of global initiatives and plans (such as the SDGs and the Paris Agreement) and climate change action plans, it is likely that the emerging role of the BRI with green development connotations will be more imperative in protecting the eco-environment and promoting global green and sustainable development. Therefore, it is worthwhile to explore feasible schemes to optimize the contribution of the BRI to the eco-environment from more aspects, improve the eco-environment in Belt and Road regions as well as enhance the capacity and effectiveness of the BRI.

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