In the 1950s, macroeconomics and economic growth received significant scientific attention. Starting from the understanding of the availability of natural capital in abundance, the economic theory has long been focused on produced and human capital. However, with exponential population growth and accelerated economic development, attention is focused on natural capital, which is a necessary condition for achieving sustainable growth and development. EU affirmed the concept of sustainable development, which presents a global political agreement that is made up of a balance between the social, economic and environmental aspects of development at all levels, from local to global.
Energy is key to the process of economic growth in many countries. Therefore, the main issue is the contribution of all energy sources to economic growth. Energy consumption is one of the basic indicators of economic growth and development. On the other hand, more efficient use of energy requires a higher level of economic development. In the past two decades, EU members have been working intensively on creating an internal energy market and an energy union. It is emphasized that it is crucial for the EU to decouple energy consumption from economic growth. After the financial sector, energy is probably the largest global industry, i.e., the industry with the widest impact on other sectors of the economy, on which the entire economic activity depends. Changes in the structure of GDP that have occurred in the past decades lead to significantly lower energy consumption per unit of GDP, i.e., to a decrease in energy intensity.
2. Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy
In thiRes
section, weearchers focus on the key results of previous empirical research that relate to the effect estimates of determinants included in
ourthe model on economic growth in EU countries.
WeResearchers present the results of research covering not only EU, but also other countries, in order to compare obtained results.
Currently, in the world, there are dirty and clean sources of energy. Dirty sources are fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, oil and nuclear energy) related to environmental pollution and are being depleted. In contrast, clean energy comes from natural renewable sources that do not pollute the environment and have a minor negative effect on it. Moreover, clean energy comprises the energy of sun, wind, water (wave, hydropower and tidal energy), geothermal energy and biomass (waste, wood and crops)
[11][9]. Renewable energy can help countries to develop green economy, to reduce carbon emissions and to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
[12][10]. This reveals the significance of new technologies and policy initiatives targeted on renewable energy. The results of a recent empirical study demonstrate that the renewable energy consumption has a positive impact on economic growth in the EU countries, both in the short and long run, encouraging further development of renewable energy sources
[13][11]. Armeanu et al.
[14][12] conclude that renewable energy sources are eco-friendly sources of energy or green energy. Additionally, they consider that renewable energy sources drive sustainable growth through energy and financial savings accomplished by substituting non-renewable energy sources and expensive energy with low-priced renewable energy sources, resulting in slower exhaustion of natural resources. Kahia et al.
[15][13] warn that most renewable energy technologies can be less competitive than non-renewable energies due to their high level of initial cost of capital and therefore, high electricity costs. This indicates the competitive disadvantage of renewable energy due to the long payback period required to recover the high initial cost of capital.
EU Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources
[16][14], signed in 2009, estimated that in all EU countries by 2020, the use of energy from the renewable sources will be 20%. Across the EU countries, this target varies from 10% to 49%. Pursuant the new Directive signed in 2018, all EU countries should decrease GHG emissions by 2030, for at least 40% compared to 1990 level on one hand, and to increase the share of renewable energy sources up to 32% and increase energy efficiency by at least 32.5%, on another
[17][15].
Based on the literatu
re re
view, it can be concluded that the nexus between renewable energy consumption and economic growth is controversial: it ranges from positive, through neutral, to negative
[18][16]. Some papers also examined the presence of a long-term relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy and economic growth
[19][17]. In addition, certain studies investigated the existence of short run causality where the results confirmed the relationship that occurs, also, in the long run
[20,21][18][19] where the impact of renewable energy on economic growth was positive. A large number of studies have confirmed the contribution of renewable energy to economic growth. Soava et al.
[22][20] revealed a positive impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth, on a sample of EU-28 member states from 1995 until 2015. The Granger causality test indicated both one-way and two-way causal relations between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for different countries. Additionally, Rafindadi and Ozturk
[23][21] note two-way causal relations between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Germany in the 1971–2013 period. Therefore, they estimate that a 1% increase in renewable energy consumption contributes to economic growth by 0.2194%. Furthermore, Alper and Oguz
[24][22] examined the causal relations between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, capital and labor in the new member states of the EU from 1990 until 2009 by applying ARDL approach. They indicated a significant and positive impact for Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland and Slovenia, but insignificant for other new EU countries. On a sample of 20 OECD countries, out of which 12 belong to the old EU group, in the period 1990–2008, Ohler and Fetters
[25][23] confirmed that renewable energy sources (wind, biomass, waste and hydroelectric power) are positively related with GDP in the long run. In addition, they proved a short-run bidirectional relation only between hydroelectric power and waste and GDP growth. Additionally, in the 1995–2015 period, Saint Akadiri et al.
[26][24], applying the ARDL approach, found the existence of positive and significant long-term relationship between environmental sustainability, renewable energy consumption and economic growth in EU-28 countries. Inglesi-Lotz
[27][25] concluded that the renewable energy consumption growth increases GDP and GDP p.c. in the OECD countries (of which 23 countries are EU members) in the 1990–2010 period.
Contrary to the above-presented results, Silva et al.
[28][26] have warned that renewable energy can initially decrease the growth of the economy in a certain number of EU countries. Chen et al.
[29][27] proved significant and positive impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth only when developing countries and non-OECD countries overcome a certain threshold of renewable energy consumption. Otherwise, this impact is negative. Additionally, they confirm no significant impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth in developed countries and positive and significant impact in OECD members.
A certain number of studies have examined the impact of non-renewable energy sources on economic growth. Coal, oil and natural gas, which are the traditional energy sources, contribute significantly to the economic growth
[30][28]. However, considering the issues of global warming and GHG emissions, all essential measures need to be taken to avoid environmental disasters. Therefore, the global warming impact on the economy is assessed to decrease the global GDP by 25%
[31][29]. Therefore, transition from non-renewable to a renewable source of energy is urgently needed. Regarding non-renewable energy, Asiedu et al.
[32][30] found that an increase of non-renewable energy on the sample of 26 European countries decreases economic growth. So far, non-renewable energy leads to economic growth, but environmental decline. Le et al.
[33][31] on a sample of 102 countries, which includes all EU countries in the period from 1996 to 2012, found that both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption significantly contribute to income. Their results confirm that renewable energy sources to a significant extent contribute to environmental protection in developed countries. On the contrary, developing countries still have difficulties in utilizing renewable energy sources in order to decrease GHG emissions, which entails substantial scope for policy improvements in this area. Interestingly, Gozgor et al.
[34][32], using ARDL and panel quantile regression methods on the EU sample during 1990–2013, fount that both economic complexity and consumption of energy from non-renewable and renewable sources are accompanied with increase in economic growth. According to Saqib
[35][33], non-renewable energy consumption leads to carbon footprint, while green energy sources are more environmentally friendly.
In addition to methane (CH
2), carbon dioxide (CO
2) is the main contributor in the GHG emission inventory leading to planetary heating. Earlier research has found that almost 59% of total GHG emissions are CO
2 emissions, which are dominantly generated by energy consumption and economic growth
[36][34]. Some studies have found bidirectional causality between carbon emissions and economic growth
[37][35]. In other studies, only unidirectional causality is found between growth and CO
2 emissions
[38][36]. Therefore, the relationship between CO
2 emissions and economic growth is of great importance for sustainable economic growth. Numerous empirical findings related to the nexus between CO
2 and economic growth should serve to policy makers to define pollution control policies, which should help strengthen sustainable economic growth and development. Not a small number of studies have indicated that the consumption of primary energy sources has led to GDP growth, but also to high pollution
[39][37].
A certain number of studies on CO
2 emissions and economic growth relationship cover European countries, including EU member states. Acaravci and Ozturk
[40][38], on a sample of a certain number of EU countries, found positive long-run elasticity estimates of carbon emissions with respect to real GDP and negative long-run elasticity estimates of carbon emissions with respect to the square of per capita real GDP (at a significance level of 1% in Denmark and 5% in Italy, while statistically insignificant in Germany, Greece, Iceland and Portugal). At the same time, a one-way causal relationship has been noted in Denmark, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Portugal and Switzerland between energy consumption, real GDP and the square of per capita real GDP on the one hand and carbon emissions per capita on the other. A short-run unidirectional causal relationship is observed in Denmark and Italy between real GDP per capita and the square of per capita real GDP, on the one hand, and carbon emissions per capita, on the other. In general, the results
of this
research shhowed that the practices of rationalization of energy consumption and controlled CO
2 emissions in most of the considered countries will not have a negative impact on real output growth. Lee and Brahmasrene
[41][39] explored the nexus between CO
2 emissions, tourism, FDI and economic growth between 1988 and 2009 for the EU countries. Their results confirmed that CO
2 emissions, FDI and tourism have a positive effect on economic growth, but also that economic growth has had a positive effect on CO
2 emissions. Kasman and Duman
[42][40], on the sample of new EU members and countries aspiring to become EU members, suggest that in these countries, a decrease of CO
2 emissions should not be expected in the near future if their economic outputs continue to increase. In OECD countries, including EU member states, Sun et al.
[43][41] concluded that the volume of CO
2 emissions will continue to grow in the long run if economic productivity continues to grow, while policies should focus on increasing the participation of green technology and clean energy, in order to decarbonize the energy industry. Furthermore, Saboori et al.
[44][42] in 27 OECD countries, including 15 EU countries, confirmed a long-run bidirectional relationship between economic growth, CO
2 emissions and energy consumption in the road sector. Saidi and Hammami
[45][43] confirmed the negative impact of CO
2 emissions on the economic growth in 60 countries (including a certain number of European countries), finding that a 1% increase in CO
2 emissions reduces economic growth by 0.0067%. In this regard, they recommended investment in clean and alternative energy sources for sustainable economic growth. In three regional sub-panels, including Europe, for the period 1990–2011, Omri et al.
[46][44] confirmed that CO
2 emissions affected significantly and negatively economic growth in all the panels, including the panel of European countries. Only for the Middle Eastern, North African and sub-Saharan panel, it has been confirmed that CO
2 emissions are positively linked to economic growth. Dogan and Aslan
[47][45], using a sample of EU countries, pointed to the existence of two-way causality between real income and CO
2 emissions. However, Gardiner and Hajek
[48][46] determined that CO
2 emissions affect GDP in both the old and new EU member countries, while a negative bidirectional relationship was only confirmed for the 15 old EU countries. Therefore, it is recommended to increase the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix and increase energy efficiency. A recent
stud
y, covering certain number of EU countries, confirmed that there has been no separation of economic growth from CO
2 emissions in France and Spain, which indicates an insufficient reduction in energy consumption from non-renewable sources. However, Sweden has managed to decouple economic growth from CO
2 emissions, making CO
2 emissions less sensitive to variations in GDP, which confirms that environmental policies have not hampered economic growth
[49][47]. Additionally, Wang et al.
[50][48] showed that Sweden and other European countries, such as Germany, France, Finland and Denmark, grew with reduced CO
2 emissions, with decarbonization of the energy system being crucial. They also emphasize that decarbonization must be further accelerated if the Paris climate target is to be achieved. Moreover, the
resea
uthorchers warn that the challenges of reconciling the economic growth goals and climate change mitigation are complicated by further support of fossil fuel production and emission-intensive industries, without using the influence of public policy as climate-relevant for changing economic structure. A study covering Germany in the period 1975–2014 determined the long-run relationship between CO
2, energy consumption and economic growth, and recommended the introduction of energy tax and regulatory mechanisms to limit the use of fossil fuels and encourage the use of hydropower and biomass as green energy sources
[51][49].
Numerous studies that investigated the nexus between CO
2 emissions and economic growth were conducted on the sample of developing and countries that are significant emitters of GHG emissions. Analyzing the relationship between CO
2 and economic growth in selected higher CO
2 emissions economies, Azam et al.
[52][50] concluded that uncontrolled CO
2 emissions have a destructive effect on economic growth if the use of green economies and good environmental practices are lacking. This
researc
h confirmed that in some countries, e.g., the USA, China and Japan, the results for the individual analysis across countries, over the period from 1971 to 2013, showed that CO
2 emissions have a significant and positive relationship with economic growth. On the contrary, in India, as one of the largest emitters of CO
2, a negative impact of CO
2 emissions on economic growth is found, which can serve as a good basis for further policy implications, and to force economic development on a sustainable basis. However, Wang et al.
[53][51] confirmed separation of economic growth from CO
2 emissions in the USA, in the period 2007–2016, when energy-related CO
2 emissions fell by 12% (with a total of 738.14 million metric tons), while GDP increased by 19%. Bozkurt and Akan
[54][52] found a positive relationship between CO
2 emissions and economic growth and warned that achieving long-term growth and development with high carbon emissions may damage the quality of the environment. They suggest that solution in these countries should be sought in the mechanisms of CO
2 emission control and the implementation of regulatory policies to reduce emissions. Additionally, the results of another study show that total primary energy and CO
2 consumption have a long-run and positive causal relationship with GDP growth in developing countries, which leads to high levels of pollution
[55][53]. Ahmad and Du
[56][54] confirm the existence of a long-run and positive relationship between CO
2 emission and economic growth. Therefore, they suggest a greater focus on sectors that require less energy consumption, as well as reducing non-renewable energy consumption. Adebayo
[57][55] noted that CO
2 emissions, energy use, urbanization and globalization were driving economic growth in Japan for the period 1970–2015. Borhan et al.
[58][56] in ASEAN-8 countries determined a negative relationship between CO
2 emissions and GDP p.c., which confirms the long-term destructive effect of environmental pollution on economic prosperity. Interestingly, some studies have confirmed that economic growth does not have to be accompanied by growth of CO
2 emissions, i.e., it can be achieved without endangering the quality of the environment
[59,60][57][58]. Therefore, the development of low-carbon economies and the adaptation of industrial structures are the basic levers for achieving the climate change mitigation goal. Additionally, the experience of some countries has shown a different relationship between CO
2 and economic growth, depending on the country’s stage of development
[55][53]. In the first phase, when the country’s development is based on less energy-intensive activities (agriculture, fisheries, forestry), there is a negative path between CO
2 and economic growth (emissions fall, GDP grows). In the industrialization phase, it shows the positive path (emissions grow, GDP grows), while in the third phase, when the country focuses on green energy policy, it again shows the negative path between CO
2 emissions and GDP growth. Therefore, the recommendation of this study is to constantly balance economic and environmental conditions, where renewable energy has a significant role in the balancing process and the realization of the interests of sustainable development.
ICT has been recognized as one of the key factors of economic growth for two decades. According to the World Bank
[61][59] (p. 20) definition, ICT includes “hardware, software, networks, and media collection, storage, processing, transmission, and presentation of information (voice, data, text, images)”. Intensive and rapid expansion of ICT, especially in the last two decades, has encouraged research on the impact of this technology on economic growth in EU countries. Both developed and underdeveloped economies have turned to ICT, which is used as a modern tool to increase competitiveness, employment and economic growth. Therefore, some research has recognized this technology as a driver of economic growth in both developed and developing countries
[62][60]. It is noticeable that the development of ICT is not homogeneous, but in both groups of countries, there are pronounced differences between regions. In addition, countries need to be as interested as possible in investing in ICT because the greater the investment in this technology, the greater the return on these investments.
The benefits of using ICT are multiple: promoting and developing entrepreneurship and sustainable development
[63[61][62],
64], faster and cheaper access to new markets
[65[63][64],
66], reduced production costs and increased productivity
[67[65][66],
68], fast and efficient access to new information and knowledge
[69,70][67][68]. The dominant number of empirical studies has confirmed that this technology has significant economic implications, and that it is an important driver of economic growth. Empirical evidence relates to productivity growth, poverty reduction, and increasing economic growth. Relevant international institutions recognize ICT as a key factor of economic growth. Accordingly, the World Economic Forum
[71][69] in its 2013 report confirmed that an increase in digitalization by 10% leads to a decrease in unemployment by 1.02% and an increase in GDP p.c. to 0.75%. With the generation of new jobs and sources of income, and the reduction of costs of health and education services, this technology has long been recognized as one of the key actors in poverty reduction
[72][70].
Previous studies have focused on the impact of telecommunications, as an important aspect of ICT, on economic growth. Thus, research conducted on the sample of CEE countries confirmed the nexus between telecommunication investment, as part of ICT investment, and economic growth. Moreover, further increase in these investments can improve the impact of aggregate investment on economic growth
[73][71]. Similarly, Roller and Waverman
[74][72] in OECD countries, including old EU members, found that a 10% increase in telecommunications investment increases GDP by 2.8%, while Datta and Agarwal
[75][73], for the same group of countries, confirmed a statistically significant and positive correlation between these two variables. In addition, a study on the impact of ICT on economic growth conducted for OECD countries, dominantly including European countries, found that the broadband penetration rate of 10% leads to an increase in GDP p.c. by 0.9–1.5%
[76][74]. Another study offered similar results, for EU countries belonging to the OECD, proving that ICT positively impacts GDP growth
[77][75]. Furthermore, Shiu and Lam
[78][76] found in over 100 countries a two-way relationship between telecommunications and economic growth in European and high-income countries, while in other countries in the sample, the impact of GDP on telecommunications investment was identified. Additionally, Pradhan et al.
[79,80][77][78] detected a bidirectional causal relationship between telecommunications development and economic growth (long-term and short-term), in both developed and developing countries. Similarly, another study that was regionally conceived confirmed the impact of telecommunications on income at the regional level
[81][79]. Moreover, Hanclova et al.
[82][80] confirmed the influence of ICT capital on economic growth in old and new EU countries and demonstrated that the elasticity in new EU was higher compared to the old EU group.
Subsequent research focused more on the impact of internet on economic growth. Thus, research including a large number of countries and using cross-country data assessed that internet access is statistically significant and positively correlated with economic growth, which contributes to the effect of knowledge and information spillovers across countries
[83][81]. Another study did not establish a direct relationship between internet use and economic growth, but an indirect one, through trade openness
[68][66], finding that internet use contributes more to trade in countries lower-income than in high-income countries. Salahuddin and Gow
[84][82] obtained similar results. Namely, their findings from ARDL cointegration tests confirmed the positive and long-term effects of internet use on economic growth, while the short-term relationship between these variables is found to be statistically insignificant. Therefore, the policy implication of this research was a further increase in investment in internet infrastructure development. Chen et al.
[64][62] examined the impact of the internet on better access to external financing, which overcomes the financial difficulties of small and micro businesses in particular. Overcoming the information asymmetry and reducing agency costs improves the credit availability of companies, which contributes to their sustainable development. Najarzadeh et al.
[85][83] confirmed the positive and statistically significant impact of internet use on productivity growth. Their research showed that increasing the number of internet users by 1% increases GDP per employee by USD 8.16–14.6. Based on the findings, policy implications of this
research were related to subsidizing the bringing of the internet to remote locations, taking initiatives to reduce internet membership fees, expanding internet bands and strengthen internet security.
Numerous studies have identified statistically significant and positive effects of ICT investment on economic growth
[86[84][85],
87], which implies that it is necessary to implement special policies that facilitate ICT investment, in order to improve economic growth. Another study found that a 10% increase in fixed broadband penetration increases GDP p.c. growth by more than 1%, both in developed and developing countries
[88][86]. Crandall and Singer
[89][87] offer similar results which showed that increasing broadband investments affects job creation and employment and intensifies economic growth, while Thompson and Garbacz
[90][88] proved that mobile broadband has a positive and significant impact on GDP per household, with a greater impact in underdeveloped countries. A positive impact of broadband adoption on economic growth was confirmed in a study covering EU countries for the period 2005–2011
[91][89], where in the defined scenario, the total benefits outweigh the costs by over 30% at EU level. This implies the recommendation for public support for the generalized build out of broadband infrastructure. The research on the sample of CEE countries
[92][90] pointed out the significant and positive impact of investment in ICT on GDP p.c., which is why incentives for technological development and investment in this technology should be provided. Interestingly, Yousefi
[93][91] did not confirm the contribution of ICT investment on GDP in developing countries, and concluded that impact of ICT is stronger in high-income countries, compared to low-income countries. Additionally, one study showed that investments in ICT are important for increasing the cost efficiency of banking sector
[94][92], while another assessed the impact of internet banking on improving the efficiency of banks
[95,96][93][94]. Similarly, recent studies have confirmed a significant and positive impact of ICT investment on economic growth
[97,98,99,100][95][96][97][98].