能源结构转型的演变: Comparison
Please note this is a comparison between Version 1 by Zhenghao Guo and Version 4 by Beatrix Zheng.

Countries have started to aggressively undertake energy structure transformation strategies in order to reach the objective of carbon neutrality. Both clean and efficient coal energy use and clean energy use will be crucial to the process of changing the energy structure since the two cannot be totally replaced within a short period of time.Therefore, it is worth exploring how the two have an impact on the energy mix transition in the energy transition process. It is also important to see how carbon sentiment affects the various actors involved in the decision-making process.各国已开始积极实施能源结构转型战略,以实现碳中和的目标。清洁高效的煤炭能源利用和清洁能源利用对于能源结构的转变都至关重要,因为两者不可能在短时间内完全替代。

  • carbon neutrality
  • energy structure transition
  • low-carbon sentiment

1. Introduction一、简介

More随着科学技术的进步,越来越多的化石燃料被使用,这是环境问题不断增加的一个因素。实现碳中和已被建议作为解决由使用化石燃料引起的工业排放问题的方法 fossil[ fuels1 are being]。这些排放导致了温室效应等问题。到 used as science and technology improve, which is a factor in the rising number of environmental problems. Achieving carbon neutrality has been suggested as a solution to the issue of industrial emissions caused by the use of fossil fuels [1]. These emissions have led to issues like the greenhouse effect. By 2050, it is年,预计将有数百个国家实现碳中和 [ expected2 that hundreds of countries will be carbon neutral [2] and a number of them have already incorporated carbon neutrality targets into their legal systems. Many nations have begun the shift from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources. Supporting the transition of the changing shape with the advancement of clean fossil fuels and new],其中一些国家已经将碳中和目标纳入其法律体系。许多国家已经开始从化石燃料转向替代能源。随着清洁化石燃料和新燃料技术的进步,支持不断变化的形状转变至关重要。随着中国经济的扩张和其 fuel technologies is critical. As China’s economy expandsO and its CO2排放量增加,其生活水平也随之增加,从而推高了能源消耗 emissions[ increase,3 so does its standard of living, which drives up energy consumption [3]. According to data, China utilized primary energy equal to ]。数据显示,2020年中国使用一次能源相当于35.12.8 million tons of oil in 2020, making up 26.1%8亿吨石油,占全球能源消耗总量的26.1%[ of4 the entire amount of energy consumed worldwide [4]. To accomplish carbon neutrality goals and to handle the numerous socio-economic and environmental concerns involved, regional energy transition strategies have been created to achieve low-carbon and sustainable development. The phrase ]。为了实现碳中和目标并解决所涉及的众多社会经济和环境问题,已经制定了区域能源转型战略以实现低碳和可持续发展。energy transition能源转型 has been referred to in a variety of ways by academics, including “sustainable energy transition”一词被学术界以多种方式提及,包括“可持续能源转型”[ [3],3 ]、low carbon energy transition”低碳能源转型”[ [4],4 and ]和green energy transition”绿色能源转型”[ [5].5]。因此,减少温室气体排放对于减少全球变暖、其影响以及随之而来的社会经济和环境问题至关重要。已经提出了替代能源,包括在伊比利亚半岛建设众多水力发电厂和新疆风能发电的持续改进[ As6、7 a] result,、太阳能储存的逐步推进[ reducing8 ]、替代技术使用石墨烯等材料作为电池 greenhouse[ gas9 emissions]、微生物燃料电池技术 is[ essential10 to] reducing global和核裂变动力系统 [ warming,11 its impacts, and the ensuing socioeconomic and environmental issues. Alternative energy sources have been suggested, including examples include the construction of numerous hydroelectric power plants in the Iberian Peninsula and the continued improvement of wind energy generation in Xinjiang [6][7], the gradual advancement of solar energy storage [8], alternative technologies using materials, such as graphene as batteries [9], microbial fuel cell technology [10], and nuclear fission power systems [11][12], all of which have gradually matured, leading to an increase in the share of clean energy in all electricity. As 12 ]],所有这些都逐渐成熟,导致清洁能源在所有电力中的份额增加。随着中国经济的发展和China’sO economy expands and its CO2排放量的增加,其生活水平也随之提高,从而推高了能源消耗[ emissions13 increase, so does its standard of living, which drives up energy consumption [13]. According to data, China utilized primary energy equal to ]。数据显示,2020年中国使用一次能源相当于35.12.8 million tons of oil in 2020, making up 26.1%8亿吨石油,占全球能源消耗总量的26.1%[ of14 the entire amount of energy consumed worldwide [14], it is anticipated that the carbon neutrality goal would be attained by ],预计到2060.年将实现碳中和目标。
China is中国是减少排放和使用能源的压力最大的国家。尽管由于 the country under the most pressure to reduce its emissions and use of energy. Despite fluctuations in economic growth due to the COVID-19 epidemic, China’s electricity and energy consumption were still increasing significantly in 疫情导致经济增长出现波动,但 2020 [15].年中国的电力和能源消耗仍显着增加 As[ the15 main]。作为发电的主要能源,化石能源消费的一半来自煤炭,但清洁能源发电的份额显着增长[ source16 of energy for power generation, half of fossil energy consumption comes from coal, but the share of clean energy generation has grown significantly [16]. In ]。2020, 年,中国发电总量的64.7% of China’s total power generation came from coal-fired power generation, with hydro-power generation ranking second and accounting for only 16.9%来自燃煤发电,水力发电位居第二,占比仅为16.9%[ [14].14]。我国城镇化水平仍在不断提高,各地区严重依赖化石燃料燃烧的产业结构对环境的影响日益严重[ The17 country’s]。近年来,智能矿山也发展起来,具备政府监管、应急响应能力和洁净煤技术[ level18、19、20 of] urbanization可以在实现节能的同时以低碳、清洁的方式运营[ is21 ]。尽管风能、潮汐能和生物质燃料等绿色能源对环境的影响相对较小,但它们也存在供应不稳定和间歇性的缺点[ still7],这增加了能源安全风险事件的可能性,危及能源供应安全。这表明以煤炭资源为代表的化石能源的使用目前在整个能源循环中占主导地位,并且不太可能很快改变[ rising, 22]。由于技术等原因,我国新能源应用发展不平衡。例如,太阳能、氢能等清洁能源的发展还处于非常早期的阶段。正因为如此,清洁能源与煤炭一直处于竞争状态,而后者在很长一段时间内都无法完全取代前者。然而,清洁能源的研究和利用使煤炭的安全有效利用成为可能。因此,在碳中和的框架内协调发展煤炭能源和清洁能源,是能源结构转变需要应对的关键环节。

二、能源结构转型研究进展

能量策略游戏的分析已经开始。为了捕捉能源转型的驱动因素,并为了模拟和讨论进化过程和进化稳定策略,以支持氢动力汽车和太阳能光伏制氢的发展,Wand the industrial structure’s impact on the environment, which depends heavily on the combustion of fossil fuels in all areas, is becoming progressively等人。[ worse23 [17]. In recent ye]分析了由投资公司、氢动力汽车用户和太阳能光伏电站组成的合作伙伴关系。为了复制和解释进化过程,Wars, smart mines have also been developed with government regulation,g 等人。[ emergency24 response] capabilities,提出了碳交换、太阳能发电厂和燃煤火力发电厂的伙伴关系。侯等人。[ and25] clean提出了一个新的概念模型,即制度性经济技术行为框架,以综合各国能源转型的异同。按照 coal technologiesGao [18][19][20],等人的说法,德国能源转型计划作为促进可再生能源增长的框架具有重要意义。[ which26 can operate in low-carbon and in a clean manner w]对能源转型期间促进可再生能源的若干战略的综合分析。为了研究政府与公众之间的关系是否可以通过考察各利益相关者之间的相互作用效应来鼓励制造商采用低碳技术,Chile achieving energyen 等人。[ conservation27] [21]. Alt在碳税和补贴下开发了政府、制造商和公众之间的三方博弈模型。为了研究经济处罚如何影响球员的战术以及优化经济处罚的演化过程,Chough green energy sources, such as wind, tidal, and biomass fuels, have relatively little environmental impact, they have the drawback of being unstableng 等人。[ and28 intermittent] in their supply [7], which r为监管机构和传统能源公司开发了混合战略博弈模型和进化博弈模型。博弈论的应用在能源转型研究中得到了很好的证明,进化博弈理论可以解释不同的战略决策如何影响整个能源转型系统。

三、演化博弈在能源结构转型中的应用

进化博弈论提供了一个合理的分析框架,因为能源结构的转变是一个渐进和持续的过程,而不是只发生一次的突然变化。许多学者使用这种进化博弈框架对能量转换进行了相关研究。在包括监管机构、能源公司和举报人在内的三向进化博弈模型中,Yaises the possibility of energy securityg 等人。[ risk29 events] and发现举报人的可能性、能源公司积极管理的可能性和严格监控的可能性之间存在重大关联。赵等人。[ jeopardizes30]分析了发电机与可再生能源相关的行为策略以及重要制度特征对发电机动态演化过程的影响。根据使用基于心理感知的进化博弈模型的乔和殷[ the31 ],消费者和公司做出的战略选择对于能源转型的有效实施至关重要。为了研究两种不同类型的发电企业,刘等人。[ security32]采用演化博弈方法和情景分析数值模拟方法对两种不同类型的发电企业进行了研究。为了处理中国政府、火电生产商和电网公司之间的复杂关系,尚等人。[ of33] the使用了基于系统动态 energy supply.(SD) 的进化博弈。他们得出的结论是,中国政府必须严格执行可再生能源组合标准,以促进能源和电力(RPS)的绿色低碳升级。通过检查每个决策者在此过程中采取的许多行动,这些研究集中在整个决策系统如何改变以支持能源结构的转变。然而,政府机构和能源用户的决策过程是否完全合理?尚不清楚其他因素是否在他们的决策中起作用。

四、情感相关研究进展

然而,研究表明,心理偏好和感受对决策者的倾向和决策有影响,无论是长期方向还是偶然性影响[ This34 indicates that the use of fossil energy, represented35 by]。例如,消极情绪状态会对冒险行为和决策产生直接影响 coal[ resources,36 currently]。由于决策者的理性、行为选择受到限制,并且获取信息的渠道有限,这些信息可以揭示不同的偏好和随之而来的不同情绪,因此情绪在决策中发挥着重要作用[ dominates37 the]。由于价值观、兴趣和偶然情绪不同,决策者有不同的心理偏好和风险态度[38 whole]。政府监管机构和能源用户都会因此而感受到情绪,而这些情绪会进一步影响他们的选择。能源结构转型参与者的情感态度将对政策实践产生重大影响。但是,传统的进化游戏并没有考虑到每个玩家的心理偏好和情绪,因此需要进一步的改进和细化。等级相关的期望效用 energy cycle and is unlikely to alter very soon [22]. (RDueEU) to technology and other circumstances, the development of new energy applications理论和进化博弈已被合并。为了创建一个多主体参与的共享制造质量创新的协同进化博弈模型,并研究情绪如何影响质量改进动机,Zhang 等人。[ and39] development in China is uneven. For example, the development of solar energy, hydrogen energy, and other clean energy sources is stillRDEU 理论与进化博弈论相结合。为了为各个部门创建一个 RDEU 博弈模型,Ni 等人。[ at40 a] very early stage. Due to this, clean energy and coal have been in a constant state of competition, with the latter unable to fully replace the former for an extended length of time. However, clean energy research and utilization have allowed for the safe and effective use of coal. Therefore, coordinating the development of both coal energy and clean energy within the framework of carbon neutrality is a key part of the energy structure change that needs to be dealt with.

2. Progress of Energy Structure Transformation Research

Analysis of energy strategy games has begun. In order to capture the drivers of the energy transition and in order to simulate and discuss the evolutionary process and evolutionary stabilization strategies to support the development of hydrogen-powered vehicles and solar photovoltaic hydrogen production, Wang et al. [23] analyzed a partnership consisting of an investment company, hydrogen-powered vehicle users, and solar photovoltaic power plants. To replicate and explain the evolutionary process, Wang et al. [24] proposed a partnership of carbon exchange, solar power plants, and coal-fired thermal power plants. Hou et al. [25] proposed a new conceptual model, the institutional economic-technical behavioral framework, to synthesize the similarities and differences in energy transitions in various nations. The German energy transition plan is significant as a framework for fostering the growth of renewable energy, as per Gao et al. [26] ’s comprehensive analysis of several strategies for boosting renewable energy during the energy transition. In order to investigate whether the relationship between the government and the public can encourage manufacturers to adopt low-carbon technologies by examining the interaction effects between various stakeholders, Chen et al. [27] developed a three-way game model between the government, manufacturers, and the public under carbon taxes and subsidies. In order to study how financial penalties impact players’ tactics and the evolutionary process of optimizing financial penalties, Chang et al. [28] developed a mixed strategy game model and an evolutionary game model for regulators and conventional energy corporations. The application of game theory has been well proven in the study of energy transition, and the theory of evolutionary games can explain how different strategic decisions may have an influence on the entire energy transition system.

3. Application of Evolutionary Games in Energy Structure Transformation

Evolutionary game theory offers a reasonable analytical framework, given that energy structural transformation is a gradual and ongoing process rather than a sudden change that occurs only once. Many academics have conducted pertinent studies on energy transitions using this evolutionary game framework. In a three-way evolutionary game model that included regulators, energy companies, and whistleblowers, Yang et al. [29] discovered a substantial association between the likelihood of a whistleblower, the likelihood of active management by energy companies, and the likelihood of rigorous monitoring. Zhao et al. [30] analyzed the behavioral strategies of generators in connection to renewable energy and the influence of important institutional characteristics on the dynamic evolutionary process of generators. According to Qiao and Yin [31], who used an evolutionary game model based on psychological perceptions, strategic choices made by consumers and companies are essential to the effective implementation of the energy transition. In order to study two different types of power generation enterprises, Liu et al. [32] used an evolutionary game approach and a numerical simulation method of scenario analysis to study two different types of power generation enterprises. In order to deal with the complex relationship between the Chinese government, thermal power producers, and grid companies, Shang et al. [33] used a system dynamic (SD)-based evolutionary game. They came to the conclusion that the Chinese government must strictly enforce the renewable portfolio standard in order to promote green and low-carbon upgrading of energy and electricity (RPS). By examining the many actions each decision-maker in the process takes, these studies have concentrated on how the entire decision-making system changes to support the transition in the energy mix. However, are decision-making processes in government agencies and energy users entirely rational? It is unknown if additional factors have any role in their decision-making.

4. Progress in Emotion-Rrelated Research

Nevertheless, research has shown that psychological preferences and feelings have an effect on decision-makers’ inclinations and decisions, both in terms of long-term direction and contingency influences [34][35]. As an example, negative emotional states can have a direct impact on risk-taking behavior and decision-making [36]. Since decision-makers are limited in their rationality, in their behavioral choices, and have limited access to information, which can reveal different preferences and subsequently different emotions, emotions play a significant role in decision-making [37]. Decision-makers have varied psychological preferences and risk attitudes as a result of their differing values, interests, and contingent emotions [38]. Both government regulators and energy users experience emotions as a result, and these feelings can further affect their choices. The emotional attitudes of the participants in the energy structure transition towards the transition will have a significant impact on policy practices. However, the traditional evolutionary game does not take into account the psychological preferences and emotions of each player, so further improvement and refinement are required. The rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) theory and evolutionary games have been merged. To create a co-evolutionary game model of shared manufacturing quality innovation with multi-subject involvement and examine how emotions impact quality improvement motivation, Zhang et al. [39] merged the RDEU theory with evolutionary game theory. To create an RDEU game model for various sectors, Ni et al. [40] merged game theory with the RDEU theory. They came to the conclusion that different emotional states and intensities impact evolutionary outcomes and evolutionary speed. Emotions are less often taken into account as an influencing element in research pertaining to the evolution of energy transitions, however. As a result, this research takes the impact of each game subject’s low-carbon sentiment into account and builds an evolutionary game model that takes carbon sentiment into account using the RDEU theory. The mutual synergistic development of coal energy and clean energy is translated into the question of the impact of the share of coal and clean energy in the energy structure transformation on the energy structure transformation based on the issue of the share of coal and clean energy in the integrated energy consumption. Government regulators and energy consumers won’t always act rationally in the face of energy structural transformation. In order to promote the efficient use of coal energy, the quick development of clean energy, and new advancements in energy structural transformation, the researchers must first understand the effects that various emotions will have on people’s decision-making and behavior, as well as on energy structural transformation.

将博弈论与 RDEU 理论相结合。他们得出的结论是,不同的情绪状态和强度会影响进化结果和进化速度。然而,在与能量转变演变有关的研究中,情绪很少被视为影响因素。