Climate Change on Smallholder Irrigation Schemes in Zimbabwe: Comparison
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Please note this is a comparison between Version 2 by Conner Chen and Version 1 by Liboster Mwadzingeni.

Smallholder irrigation schemes (SISs) have been portrayed as a panacea to climate change adaptation. However, there is an emerging discourse that established schemes are becoming vulnerable to increased climate variability and change, particularly increased water stress. The change in climate experienced world-wide already has negative implications for 21st-century agriculture in Zimbabwe. There is mounting evidence that large investments have been made in Zimbabwe’s SISs in an attempt to depart from rain-fed agriculture through judicious harnessing of available water resources. However, there is rising concern about the need to build the resilience of these schemes to protect investments in light of a more variable climate. 

  • rainfall
  • drought
  • temperature

1. Current Climatic Conditions and Their Variation in Zimbabwe

The current climatic conditions in Zimbabwe were compared to its base season in 1950. Greater parts of the country now experience a late start to the rainy season by up to 18 days, while some regions experience an early start [9][1]. Additionally, termination of the season occurs early, resulting in contraction of the season [9][1]. Further, the length of the dry spells has increased, with a number of dry spells during the rainy season stretching to 20 days. Currently, annual rainfall ranges from 450 mm in agro-ecological zone (AEZ) Vb to 1250 mm in AEZ I [9][1]. Rainfall decreased in the northern, eastern and southern parts while increasing significantly from the central to western parts of the country [9][1].
Further, there was significant warming in both minimum and maximum temperatures across the country [9][1]. Currently, the mean annual temperature ranges from 25 °C in AEZ I to a maximum of 32 °C in AEZ Vb [9][1]. Maximum monthly temperature significantly increased in February, May and June in the central, eastern and southern parts of the country while decreasing in August in the southern parts of the country [9][1]. The winter months (May, June and July) are getting colder. An increase in potential evapotranspiration and a decrease in precipitation increase aridity across the country [9][1]. Arider agroecological zones (AEZs) rose to 8.5% for AEZ Vb and 29.3% for region Va [9][1].

2. Climate Change Impacts in Zimbabwe

The potential impact of climate change on SISs depends on a combination of exposure, sensitivity and resilience of the SISs to potential water supply and demand changes, and hence, it varies considerably from one scheme to another. Agricultural communities are seriously at risk due to reliance of their livelihoods on farming, their little scope of diversification and their high exposure to climate variability [30][2]. Zimbabwe is evidently experiencing the effects of climate change through notable increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, making it face chronic food insecurity [31][3]. These changes will result in water stress, rendering land difficult for agriculture, thereby threatening the nation’s economy and livelihoods. Agricultural systems in Zimbabwe have already been identified as the most vulnerable entity to climate change due to their dependence on natural resources [32,33][4][5]. The relative dependence of SISs in Zimbabwe on surface water makes the livelihoods of communities more vulnerable to climate change and variability, as the existing resources often dry up [34][6], leading to water stress. The vulnerability of SISs in Zimbabwe are increased revenue collapse, poor access to credit due to weak tenure security and degradation of irrigation infrastructure [35][7]. Small scale farmers are subjected to cropping calendars, low-value crops, uncertain markets, climate variability and little food security, challenging their ability to benefit from loans. Although the SISs are touted as a panacea to withstand impact of climate change and variability [31[3][8][9],36,37], they face increasing water stress. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, a rise in evaporative demand, increased frequency of floods and greater depletion of water supplies contribute to water stress. On the other hand, outbreaks of pests and diseases, including new and emerging pests, are expected to increase due to changes in rainfall and temperature [38][10].
The impact is expected to vary across the AEZs of Zimbabwe, since these are divided mainly on the basis of rainfall regimes, soil quality and vegetation [32,39][4][11]. The impacts of all the above challenges will not be homogeneous, given the heterogeneity in management and institutions; thus, resilience and adaptive capacity varies across SISs.

2.1. Impact of Climate Change Change on Rainfall

Rainfall is seasonal in Zimbabwe. The rainy season generally stretches from mid-November to March [32,40][4][12]. The country’s rainfall patterns are influenced by El Nino–Southern Oscillation events, which have a 30% chance of causing drought [40][12]. Evidence of desiccation below previous averages and increased rainfall variability has been noted in most parts of the country [9,39][1][11]. A decline in rainfall by an average of 10% or 100 mm has been observed in the country [40][12]. Most parts of Zimbabwe are becoming increasingly drier due to climate change [32,41][4][13]. Besides, even AEZ II and III are becoming arid, as noted by remarkable decreases in precipitation of 49% and 14%, respectively [32,39,42][4][11][14]. Rainfall patterns and intensity are highly variable and are projected to be uncertain in the second half of the 21st century [43][15]. Zimbabwe’s monthly precipitation is projected to decrease by 3.3, 5.1, 7.4 and 8.2 mm in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, respectively [32,44][4][16]. According to IPCC, seasonal rainfall characteristics such as onset, duration, dry spell frequencies and intensity have changed significantly in the region [44][16]. However, the recent decline in agricultural production is linked to more frequent and severe droughts [32,40][4][12]. Thus, Mazvimavi [40][12] advocates for planning and managing water resource systems to adapt to changing climate.
Although the Mann–Kendall test showed an insignificantly trend of precipitation (Table 1), the Sen slope (Figure 31) shows a gradual decrease with a margin of −0.47 mm per year, which may suggest that climate change is negatively impacting rainfall.
Figure 31.
 Rainfall trend in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2020.

2.2. Impact of Climate Change on Temperature

There is variation in temperature across AEZs [45][17]. The average annual temperature varies between 18 and 25 °C in areas with high altitude (approximately 1500 m) in the eastern and highveld and between 22 and 25 °C in lower altitudes (northern and southern regions) [45][17]. The Metrological Services Department (MSD) of Zimbabwe has reported that the daily minimum temperature rose by approximately 2.6 °C and the daily maximum temperature rose by 2 °C over the last century [46][18]. The rise in temperature is attributed to the recent increase in the number of hot days and nights and decrease in the number of cold days and nights in recent decades. Temperature across the country is projected to rise in the 21st century and beyond. However, the increase in temperature will depend on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, as Zimbabwe’s monthly temperature is projected to rise by 1.2 °C, 2.2 °C, 3.4 °C and 4.5 °C in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s under RCP8.5, respectively [32,44][4][16]. The highest temperature increases are projected to occur in June to September [44][16].
The Mann–Kendall test (Table 1) and Sen slope (Figure 42) show a significant increase in warming in Zimbabwe. The increase in warming trend reflects the growing impact of climate change.
Figure 42.
 Temperature trend in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2020.

2.3. Impacts of Climate Change on Incidences of Cyclones, Droughts and Floods

Droughts have devastating impacts on the nation’s economy and contribute to the terminal vulnerability of the majority of its communities (Figure 53) [38][10]. The devastating droughts recently affecting Zimbabwe (January to March 2021) are strongly correlated to El Nino [47][19]. Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector, which contributes nearly 12% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is severely affected by droughts (Figure 53) [38][10]. Approximately 70% of the national population depends directly on agriculture [38][10]. Climate-induced water stress has crippled agricultural and economic productivity, further resulting in an upward spiral of poverty and insecurities [38][10]. Since 1990, severe incidences of droughts were recorded: in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016 and 2018–2019 seasons [38,45][10][17]. Isolated droughts patterns varied spatially in 2003–2004, 2006–2007, 2011–2012 and 2017–2018 farming seasons [38,45][10][17]. Although droughts are a common feature in all the provinces, they are more severe in southwestern provinces—Matabeleland North and South—and less severe in the eastern provinces—Manicaland and Mashonaland East [42][14]. The bulk of droughts in the past century occurred in the past two decades, although most of them were mild [45][17]. Droughts have culminated in the stagnation of rural livelihoods for more than four decades through hunger, decimated crops and livestock production, environmental degradation and declining socio-economic status [45][17]. In Zimbabwe, ad hoc measures to address drought focus on alleviating its impacts rather than encompassing the full cycle of drought management to ensure adaptation and copying at the individual, national and regional levels in the unforeseeable future [3][20].
Figure 53. Drought-affected agricultural GDP and overall GDP growth from 1970 to 2016 (source: Green Climate Fund [48]).
 Drought-affected agricultural GDP and overall GDP growth from 1970 to 2016 (source: Green Climate Fund [21]).
Cyclone-related extreme flooding has destroyed pumping facilities, embankments and irrigation and drainage infrastructure in Zimbabwe over the years [37][9]. Cyclone Eline of 2000, Cyclone Dineo of 2017 and Cyclone Idai of 2019 were the most disastrous and fatal cyclones over the past two decades [49,50][22][23]. The communications system, crops ready for the market, dwellings and SIS infrastructure were destroyed by cyclones and floods [49,50,51][22][23][24]. Cyclone Eline destroyed Mutema Irrigation Scheme infrastructure, including three boreholes, resulting in the scheme operating only at 10% capacity [51][24]. Cyclone Japhet destroyed a dam in the Chirume communal land in Shurugwi, making the community more sensitive to drought [52][25]. Cyclone Idai damaged ten SISs in Chimanimani district and eight SISs in Chipinge district [53][26]. Specifically, 2293.50 ha were damaged, affecting 5041 scheme farmers [53][26]. In addition to this, other support infrastructures, such as roads, power supply lines and schools, were also damaged; and some crops under irrigation were also lost [53][26]. According to estimates, a total of US $4,890,000 will be required to rehabilitate the schemes [53][26].

2.4. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

Zimbabwe’s water resources, which amount to 20,000 million m3 per year, or 1413 m3 per capita, are mostly surface water resources, since there are limited groundwater resources [47][19]. The country has 2200 dams, including 260 large dams with a total capacity of 99,930 m3 [47][19]. The water resources in the country vary across five AEZs [7][27]. The impact of climate change is projected to severely reduce Zimbabwe’s water resources [7][27]. Rainfall simulations in the Odzi, Gwayi and Sebakwe catchment areas has shown a decrease in precipitation by 15–18% and an increase in evaporation by 7.5–13% [54][28]. This was projected to result in a 50% decrease in runoff by 2075 [54][28]. Runde and Mzingwane catchments, where average rainfall could decrease by between 12% and 16% by 2050, are anticipated to face the largest decline [7][27]. Additionally, the recharge rates of wetland and aquifers are expected to be reduced, impacting water availability for irrigation farming [7][27]. Additionally, water demand for domestic purposes, irrigation, livestock, industry and energy generation is expected to grow, as the population, number of cities and industries and evaporation are projected to rise gradually [54][28]. The WorldBank [32][4] stated that climate change will result in a 38% decline in national per capita water availability by 2050 in the best-case scenario, pushing inhabitants of Zimbabwe to depend on groundwater sources.
The estimation by Yu et al. [55][29] that Africa could irrigate over 40 million ha is based on land resources. However, such figures might be inaccurate, as they do not consider available water resources, irrigation technology in use, diverse uses of water and the possible impact of climate change. The surface and groundwater resources are challenged by climate change and variability due to unpredictable seasonal rainfall and losses from evaporation, low runoff and sedimentation in reservoirs [56,57][30][31]. Water resources are gradually moving towards the level where current irrigation technology will not sustain them. Therefore, the ministry responsible for water resources has a responsibility to formulate water resource utilization policies [47][19].

3. Climate Change and Its Impact on Irrigation in Zimbabwe

3.1. Water Stress

The relationship between climate change and water stress could be the main contributing factor to vulnerability among SISs. The projected reduction in rainfall translates to reductions in runoff and the refilling of water bodies [7][27]. Dams, rivers and catchment areas are susceptible to drying, resulting in inadequate water supply for irrigation purposes. Additionally, groundwater recharge is predicted to be more severe in arid and semi-arid regions due to a decline in runoff [30][2]. Therefore, a rise in temperature and a decrease in rainfall are predicted to worsen water stress among SISs [31,58][3][32]. Increased warming will increase irrigation water demand by triggering a rise in evapotranspiration [59][33].
Water stress among SISs in Zimbabwe is associated with a combined effect of a rising water deficit in catchment areas, an increase in population, rapid urbanization and industrialization [43,60][15][34]. For example, a fall in Ruti dam’s water level in mid-2013 resulted in the diversion of water from the Ruti Irrigation Scheme and allocating it to sugar estates, making the problem of the SIS farmers more acute [58][32]. This was followed by the dam’s total drying up in September 2013, resulting in the loss of the entire cropping season [58][32]. Additionally, Hanusch et al. [35][7] anticipate SIS performance to decline in the face of climate change and variability, coupled with depleted sources of resilience in the country. In the Mkoba Irrigation Scheme, only 20% of irrigated land was utilized in 2015, as the dam could not meet irrigation water requirements [41][13]. The absence of an accessible and reliable water source following the destruction of a dam in the Chirume community in 2008 has resulted in crop loss due to water stress during prolonged mid-season droughts [52][25]. Low rainfall experienced in Zimbabwe due to climate change leads to poor crop yields, resulting in massive economic, environmental and social costs [45][17]. The 1991/1992, drought resulted in water stress, reducing Zimbabwe’s agriculture production and GDP by 45% and 11%, respectively [61][35]. The increasing trend and severity of similar events resulting from climate change cripples the national economy and livelihoods of rural people [45][17].
Several studies have shown excessive water stress-related yield decline in most SISs in the western parts of the country, particularly Matabeleland South and North [43,45,60][15][17][34]. The water stress is projected to particularly affect schemes in AEZ IV and V [9,39][1][11]. Climate change is likely to worsen evaporation in Zimbabwe, especially in the Lowveld, where it is higher (<2200 mm), and where precipitation is a paltry (<300 mm) [47][19]. However, there is a scarcity of data and accurate simulations of the potential effects of climate change on water sources and catchment areas in Zimbabwe [62][36]. The projected rise in irrigation water demand of 7% to 21% by the 2080s due to a surge in evapotranspiration water demand [30][2] will worsen water stress in SISs. Some studies suggest that increased temperature and low rainfall are altering the water available for irrigation purposes [58,62][32][36]; therefore, the decline in water availability for irrigation diminishes productivity and livelihoods of scheme farmers.

3.2. Competing Needs

Irrigation water has multiple uses among rural communities, where most schemes are located. Water, an essential element in biological, social and economic systems [41[13][37],63], has competing uses that affect water discharge to SISs. Competing water needs vary from one AEZ to another, and are likely to intensify with climate change. High-level pressure on water resources due to the combined demands of agriculture and other sectors has resulted in water scarcity in Zimbabwe’s rivers, impacting water users and the environment [60][34]. In rural Zimbabwe, water is needed for livelihood needs, including domestic uses, gardening, fishing, irrigation, recreation, reeds, dip tanks and livestock watering [64][38]. However, in Mkoba and Silalatshani irrigation schemes in the Midlands and Matabeleland South provinces, water is diverted from irrigation canals to home gardens [41][13]. Increases in average irrigation water requirements of 33%, 66% and 99% are expected in the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively, from a baseline of 67 mm, for maize production in Zimbabwe [65][39].
Water, energy and food (WEF) are closely linked. Water use for energy generation, representing 15% of global water withdrawal, competes with water demands for food production [66][40]. Energy is essential for making water available for irrigation, food processing and wastewater treatment [66][40]. Electrification is lacking in rural areas in Zimbabwe, and those connected to the grid suffer frequent power cuts [60][34], making pumping of water for irrigation purposes challenging. Moreover, there are limited prospects of expanding the national grid to rural areas, as it will be more costly than in dense urban settlements [60][34]. As most SISs are located in rural regions, poor rural electricity has an impact on smallholder irrigation. The challenge of simultaneously addressing potentially conflicting objectives of WEF while maintaining resources for other sectors needs an integrated approach of the system as a whole [67][41].
Meaningful development opportunities are missed when there is no clear link between water use, energy supply and mainstream agricultural livelihood in Zimbabwe [68][42]. The nexus’ effectiveness among SISs in Zimbabwe can be determined by community institutions’ strength, ownership and management structure [68][42]. The variable climate and recurrent droughts in the country make the water supply sporadic, affecting hydropower’s potential in Zimbabwe. Competing community needs around water use have been seen in the development and use of SISs and hydropower stations. The sophisticated and organized community structure at a scheme in Chipendeke in Manicaland province has integrated an 80 KW hydropower plant and irrigation [68][42]. Multiple uses of available water resources can result in conflicts and lead to the possibility of multiple but independent failures in the water supply system in the face of climate change [63][37]. According to Palombi and Sessa [30][2], climate change exacerbates tensions and increases competition for water.

3.3. Climate Change Impacts on Pest and Disease Outbreaks

Climate change will lead to new and emerging pests, whose effects vary with AEZs. Crop loss will be increased by a myriad of climate change-related factors that include: decrease in host plant resistance, reduction in the efficacy of pesticides and the arrival of alien pest species [5,69][43][44]. Changes in both precipitation and temperature will lead to increased infestations of pests and disease outbreaks, reducing crop and animal productivity and driving up expenditure of pesticides, herbicides and veterinary drugs [6,7][27][45]. A change in pest distribution is among the most commonly reported abiotic responses to climate change [5,6][43][45]. A study in Mutare district shows that coffee white stem borers respond more to precipitation factors [6][45]. Mafongoya et al. [5][43] postulate that incidences of pests in Zimbabwe respond to changes in seasonality, temperature and rainfall patterns. Projected climate change-related temperature and precipitation changes will likely result in crop losses due to increased abiotic stress from weeds, insects, fungi, viruses, nematodes and rodents. Pests cause yield loss at all stages of the production cycle, from planting to postharvest [69][44]. It is projected that theyield loss of major staple crops due to increased pests alone will expand by 10 to 25% for each degree of global mean surface warming [7][27]. Temperature enhances the development rates of pests, shifts pests’ species composition and increases the spread of invasive pests into new zones as suitable climatic conditions expand [5][43].
Zimbabwe’s smallholder farmers are projected to face a wave of new pests spreading to Southern Africa, including the fall armyworm, tomato leaf miner and cotton mealy bug [32][4]. Mid-season and prolonged dry spells may promote the occurrence of insect pests, such as armyworms [70][46]. Fall armyworms destroyed 20% of the nation’s maize crops during the 2016–2017 farming season, worsening the nation’s food status. Over 4 million people were dependent on food aid [32][4]. New and emerging pests that are suited to the changes in conditions make farming difficult in Zimbabwe [5,32][4][43]. However, characteristically, poor smallholder farmers have no options to deal with new pests. A countrywide survey by Mafongoya et al. [5][43] in Zimbabwe found out that smallholder farmers perceived increases in the abundance of aphids, whiteflies, stem borers, ball worms, red spider mites, termites and diamondback moths; and the emergence of new pests due to the shortening winter, increasing temperature and lengthy dry spells.

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